Week 17 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-3.5, 50.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Lions (13-2) have won twelve of their last thirteen games and just brushed aside the Bears 34-17, easily covering as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, the 49ers (6-9) have dropped four of their last five games and just fell to the Dolphins 29-17, losing outright as 2-point road favorites.

The early lookahead opener for this game was Lions -2.5 on the road. We quickly saw the line get adjusted up to Detroit -3. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Lions, who are receiving 90% of spread bets at DraftKings and 88% of spread bets at Circa. This overwhelming support pushed Detroit up from -3 to -3.5. However, now that the hook has come into play we are starting to see some buyback on the 49ers, as San Francisco is being juiced up +3.5 (-115 or -120), signaling a possible game-day drop down to the key number of 3. The 49ers have notable “bet against the public” value, as they are only receiving 10% of spread bets at DraftKings and 12% of spread bets at Circa.

It’s been a historically chalky season in the NFL this year. Favorites have gone 12-3 ATS and 14-1 straight up so far in Week 17. Favorites are now 136-112 ATS (55%) overall, with road favorites even more profitable at 56-41 ATS (57%). In terms of winning outright, favorites are now 182-73 (71%) straight up, with road favorites 74-28 (73%) straight up. The Lions are -190 on the moneyline. At DraftKings, Detroit is taking in 94% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Lions are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way action in favor of Detroit to win the game.

This is also a revenge game for the Lions, who blew a 17-point lead to the 49ers in last season’s NFC Championship game and lost 34-31. Detroit may also be the more motivated team, as they are fighting for the number one seed in the NFC while the 49ers have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen one-way movement on the under as the line has fallen from 51.5 to 50.5 or even 50 at some shops. This downward movement is especially notable because 60% of bets are taking the over at DraftKings, yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is only receiving 39% of bets but 80% of dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Weather shouldn’t be an issue tonight, as the forecast calls for low 50s with mild 5 MPH winds.

Player Prop to Consider

Jameson Williams Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110): Williams has gone over this number in 9 of 13 games played this season, including three straight road games. He just caught 5 passes on 7 targets for 143 yards last week against the Bears. Williams is second on the team in receiving yards (890) and targets (75). This game features a high total (50.5) and also a pleasant weather forecast, which bodes well for offensive output.

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