Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 3 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 53.5)
The Lions (1-1) just dominated the Bears 52-21 in Week 2, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (1-1) just crushed the Browns 41-17, covering as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as high as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Ravens at home, as Baltimore is taking in 57% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Ravens fall from -6.5 to -4.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Baltimore to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Detroit plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog Lions.
Detroit is offering “bet against the public” value as the Lions are only receiving 43% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At Circa, Detroit is receiving 27% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas taking the points with the Lions.
Primetime dogs are 6-3 ATS (67%) this season and 147-129 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Short road dogs +6 or less are 318-267 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Dan Campbell is 23-11 ATS (68%) with a 30% ROI as a regular season dog as head coach of the Lions. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is 18-26 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 4.5-points or more in his career. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically.
Detroit has value as a “dog who can score” system match (34 PPG, 4th best in NFL), thereby increasing the chances the Lions can keep pace or backdoor cover. The Lions are also in a prime teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a steady dose of over money hit the market, raising the line up from as low as 50.5 to 53.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 76% of bets and 75% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 77% of bets and a whopping 95% of dollars, a notable sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Weather looks ideal in Baltimore, with the forecast calling for low 70s/high 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
