Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 13 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and New England Patriots. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5, 46.5)
The Giants (2-10) have dropped six straight games and just fell to the Lions 34-27 in overtime but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Patriots (10-2) have won nine in a row and just held off the Bengals 26-20 but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with New England listed as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Giants get juiced up +7.5 (-115 or -120) while several other books have fallen down to Giants +7. This line never rose up to Patriots -8.
Reading between the lines, we are seeing sneaky sharp liability on New York plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their direction despite the tickets being split down the middle at DraftKings.
At Circa, New York is receiving 42% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating sharp money out in Vegas leaning toward the road dog.
The Giants match several notable betting systems tonight.
Big dogs getting 7-points or more are 30-22 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 39-26 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI this season. Dogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 78-64 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Primetime dogs are 21-18 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI this season. Primetime dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 8-6 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and 33-23 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2022.
New York has additional buy-low value as a dog on a losing skid against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak.
Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 53% ATS to the road team historically.
The Giants are 3-0 ATS as a dog in their three games and 7-5 ATS as a dog overall this season.
In terms of the total, it opened at 46.5, briefly touched as high as 47.5 and has come back down to the opener of 46.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 42% of bets and 43% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 37% of bets and 49% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 25-17 (60%) with a 14% ROI this season and 126-88 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2022.
The forecast calls for chilly temperatures in the mid to high 20s with mostly clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Gillette Stadium.
