Tonight Week 7 of the NFL wraps up with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader as the Ravens visit the Buccaneers and the Cardinals host the Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 50) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Ravens (4-2) have won four-straight games and just took down the Commanders 30-23, pushing as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-2) just crushed the Saints 51-27, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with the Ravens and 65% of spread bets are laying the points with Baltimore. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Baltimore fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bucs, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side.
The Bucs have notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving 35% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 127-105 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Baker Mayfield is 2-1 ATS as a dog this season and 11-5 ATS (69%) as a dog since joining Tampa Bay.
We’ve also seen a steady flow of over money show up, raising the total from 47 to 50. The over is receiving 82% of bets and 77% of money, signaling a heavy dose of both Pro and Joe support. The Ravens are 5-1 to the over this season, the best over team in the NFL. The Bucs are 4-2 to the over, ranking 6th.
Player Prop to Consider
Baker Mayfield Over 253.5 passing yards (-110): Mayfield has gone over this number in two of his past three games, throwing for 325 yards last week against the Saints and 347 yards three weeks ago against the Eagles. He has gone over this number in 7 of his last 9 home games. The Ravens are allowing 275.7 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. The Bucs are also a dog in a high total game, which means they might be trailing and forced to focus on the passing game in order to keep pace or catch up.
9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 44) at Arizona Cardinals
The Chargers (3-2) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 23-16 win over the Broncos, covering as 3-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (2-4) have dropped three of their last four games and just got rolled by the Packers 34-13, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Early on, we saw a big move toward the Chargers as they rose up to a 2.5-point road favorite. However, since that time we’ve seen steady buyback on the Cardinals as a home dog, dropping Arizona down from +2.5 to +1. Over the past 24-hours, smart money has knocked the Cardinals down from +1.5 to +1. Essentially, all late movement is breaking back toward Arizona. This buyback is especially notable because the public is hammering Los Angeles (69% of spread bets), yet the line is ticking back toward the contrarian Cardinals.
Aside from offering “bet against the public value” as Arizona is only receiving 31% of spread bets, the Cardinals also have value as a dog off a blowout loss. Teams who lost by 20-points or more the previous week have rebounded to go 93-73 ATS (56%) since 2018. Arizona also has buy-low value as a dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who covered. Kyler Murray is 27-16 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career. Those looking to go contrarian and back Arizona would be wise to hold out for a hook, as some shops are juicing up Chargers -1 (-115), signaling a possible game-day rise up to -1.5. This would also open up a Wong Teaser opportunity with Arizona (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top two key number of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 43.5 to 44. Some shops are up to 44.5. The over is receiving 67% of bets and 83% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Monday Night Football overs are 6-2 (75%) this season with a 44% ROI. This game will also be played at State Farm Stadium and the roof is expected to be closed, providing ideal conditions for offense and the kicking game.
