Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 2 with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 42.5)
The Buccaneers (1-0) just took down the Falcons 23-20 in Week 1, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (0-1) just came up short against the Rams 14-9, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the road dog Buccaneers.
However, despite two-thirds of tickets backing Tampa Bay we’ve seen the line remain stagnant at Houston -2.5. In fact, most shops across the market are juicing up the Texans -2.5 (-115). Reading between the lines, we are seeing a sharp “line freeze” in favor of the Texans, as the line has stayed the same or been juiced up in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Texans are only receiving 34% of spread bets but a whopping 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 43% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Texans at home.
Houston has rare “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as an unpopular favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. The Texans also have buy-low value as a team off a loss who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high team off a win who did cover.
Many pros have elected to mitigate some risk by playing Houston to win straight up on the moneyline (-140). At DraftKings, the Texans are receiving 28% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a home team victory.
Historically, favorites in non-conference matchups have held the edge with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win. Non-conference favorites are 4-1 straight up this season and 115-50 (70%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2023.
Baker Mayfield is 14-7 ATS (67%) as a dog with Tampa Bay. With this in mind, bettors looking to back the Bucs would wise to consider Tampa Bay in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Bucs up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy data-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (78% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is receiving 42% of bets and 51% of dollars, a sharp desert split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 3-3 this season but 193-139 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 46.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers (1-0) just upset the Chiefs 27-21 in Week 1 in Brazil, winning outright as 3-point neutral site dogs. Similarly, the Raiders (1-0) just took down the Patriots 20-13, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit too short and 71% of spread bets are laying the points with Los Angeles at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Chargers remain stagnant at -3.5. In addition, most books across the market are juicing up the Raiders side (+3.5 at -115), signaling a possible dip down to the key number of 3 on gameday.
Normally, if a team is garnering such lopsided action you would expect oddsmakers to bump them up from -3.5 to -4 or -4.5. The fact that this line has stayed right where it’s at despite the heavy public love for Los Angeles indicates a sharp line freeze on the Raiders plus the hook.
The Raiders offer notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 29% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime game.
Divisional dogs, like the Raiders here, are 263-223 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. Primetime dogs are 5-1 ATS so far this season and 146-127 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.
Pete Carroll is 53-34 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI as a dog, second only to Mike Tomlin among active head coaches.
In terms of the total, we saw some shops open as low as 44.5 and quickly get bet up to 47. However, once we reached a high water mark of 47 we started to see some under buyback show up, dropping most totals down to 46.5 where it stand now.
At Circa, the under is receiving 34% of bets but a hefty 68% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a lower scoring game out in Vegas.
