Tonight we close out NFL Week 4 with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 44.5)
The Jets (0-3) just came up short against the Buccaneers 29-27 last week but managed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Dolphins (0-3) just fell to the Bills 31-21 but managed to cover 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
All movement and liability seems to be on the Dolphins’ side as Miami is being juiced up -2.5 (-115 or -120), with some books even touching the key number of -3 at times throughout the week. We’ve never seen this line fall to Miami -2.
At DraftKings, the Dolphins are receiving 55% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami is taking in 52% of spread bets and a hefty 73% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to follow the sneaky sharp liability on Miami but also wary of laying points around a key number in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Dolphins on the moneyline at -150. At Circa, Miami is taking in 41% of moneyline bets but a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas playing the home team to win straight up.
Favorites are 43-18 (71%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season.
Tua Tagovailoa is 25-9 (74%) straight up with a 19% ROI at home in his career. He is also 5-0 straight up against the Jets in his career. When both teams are 0-3 entering Week 4, the favorite is 7-4 (64%) straight up since 2006.
Miami enjoys a notable 3-day rest advantage, as the Dolphins last played on Thursday while the Jets played on Sunday and now will be playing their second road game.
Those looking to back the road dog would be wise to consider the Jets in a Wong Teaser. By taking New York up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
We’ve also seen some liability on the under, as the total hasn’t budged off the opener of 44.5 but is now being juiced under 44.5 (-115). At DraftKings, the under is receiving 58% of bets but 89% of dollars, a massive sharp under split.
Outdoor divisional unders are 10-6 (62%) this season and 309-258 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018.
Primetime unders are 7-6 (54%) this season and 197-142 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 80s with partly cloudy skies and 8-12 MPH winds with gusts up to 20 MPH.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 44.5)
The Bengals (2-1) just got destroyed by the Vikings 48-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Broncos (1-2) just came up short against the Chargers 23-20, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Denver listed as a 6-point home favorite.
Pros and Joes seem to both be backing the home chalk as we’ve seen the Broncos get steamed up from -6 to -7.5.
At DraftKings, the Broncos are taking in 65% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars. At Circa, Denver is receiving 67% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split out in Vegas and further evidence of big money laying the points with Denver at home.
Those looking to follow the steam but also wary of a touchdown game not covering by the hook could instead elect to tease down the Broncos from -7.5 to -1.5, thereby passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Now that the line has risen to far off the opener, the Bengals are providing buy-low inflated dog value. Cincinnati is also the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Bengals are only receiving 35% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 8-6 ATS (57%) so far this season and 141-113 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI since 2022. Primetime dogs are 8-4 ATS (67%) this season and 149-130 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.
Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Bengals here, are 4-1 ATS (80%) this season and 125-96 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2018.
