Tonight the opening week of the NFL continues with a primetime showdown in Brazil between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 49.5)

The Packers went 9-8 last season, earning a Wild Card berth and reaching the NFC Divisional Round where they fell to the 49ers 24-21. Green Bay’s win total for this season is 9.5 with the over juiced to -135. Meanwhile, the Eagles went 11-6 last season, earning a postseason bid before losing to the Bucs 32-9 in the Wild Card round. Philadelphia’s win total for this season is 10.5 with the over juiced to -130.

Tonight’s “International Series” line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. The public is all over the Eagles, with 71% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars laying the short chalk with Philadelphia. This lopsided support pushed the Eagles all the way up from -1 to -3. However, once we reached the key number of 3 we saw sharp buyback on the Packers, dropping the Eagles back down from -3 to -2.5. Some shops are even down to Eagles -2. Essentially, all late movement is breaking back toward the unpopular Packers plus the points.

Green Bay has notable contrarian value, receiving only 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 120-92 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2020. Week 1 dogs are 71-54 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2016. Jordan Love is 10-5 ATS (67%) with a 27% ROI as a dog in his career. Those looking to bet against the public and back Green Bay might also consider the Packers in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking Green Bay up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy wiseguys are able to pass through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.

Another variable here is the questionable mindset of the Eagles’ players. Several players have expressed reluctance and disdain about playing in Brazil, as they were told not to leave the hotel due to safety concerns. Eagles’ cornerback Darius Slay said point blank “I do not want to go to Brazil.” Philadelphia also seems annoyed by the fact that they are designated the “home” team, which means they have one less true home game in Philadelphia.

Sharps also seem to be leaning over, as we’ve seen the total rise from 48.5 to 49.5. This movement is notable because 58% of bets are taking the under, yet the total ticked upward. This signals some sharp contrarian over reverse line movement. The forecast looks perfect at Corinthians Stadium in Sao Paolo, with temperatures in the low 60s with little to no wind.

Player Prop to Consider

Devonta Smith over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)

Smith has gone over this number in seven of his last ten games. Smith was second on the team in targets last season with 112, trailing only A.J. Brown, who finished with 158. Green Bay’s top cornerback Jaire Alexander is expected to cover Brown, which leaves Smith against the Packers’ second corner Eric Stokes. Also, the fact that we have a high total and a short spread may lead to more offense and a back-and-forth game, which bodes well for offensive player prop outputs. We also have ideal field conditions with no threat of inclement weather.

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