Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 10 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9, 42.5)
The Raiders (2-6) have lost two straight and just came up short against the Jaguars 30-29 in overtime but managed to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Broncos (7-2) have won six in a row and just edged the Texans 18-15, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Denver listed as high as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 61% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Broncos, who have the far better won-loss record and enjoy home field advantage at Mile High.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Denver tumble from -10.5 to -9, with a few shops even inching down to -8.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Broncos to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with the Raiders plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
At DraftKings, the Raiders are taking in 39% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Las Vegas.
Primetime dogs are 16-12 ATS (57%) this season and 157-138 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Primetime dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 6-3 ATS (67%) this season and 59-41 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2020.
Las Vegas has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 319-279 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2019. Road divisional dogs are 196-160 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2019.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Raiders here, are 24-20 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Pete Carroll is 54-38 ATS (59%) with a 14% ROI as a dog in his regular season career.
Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically.
Those looking to put on the “hazmat suit” and back the Raiders would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings is currently offering Las Vegas +9.5 (-110) while the rest of the market sits at +9 or even +8.5.
In terms of the total, it opened at 42.5, dipped down to as low as 41.5 but has since risen back up to 42.5. A closer look at the total now shows the over 42.5 being juiced up to -115 or -120 with a few other books now showing 43. Essentially, late gameday movement seems to be leaning over.
At Circa, the over is taking in 78% of bets and 79% of dollars, a notable one-way Pro and Joe bet split from the wiseguys out in Vegas in favor of a higher scoring game.
Overs are 72-62 (54%) with a 2% ROI this season. Thursday Night Football overs are 5-4 (56%) with a 4% ROI this season.
When the total is 43 or less, the over is 18-13 (58%) with an 11% ROI this season.
The over is 12-0 in Vinovich’s last 12 regular season games as the lead referee.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue tonight at Mile High, as the forecast calls for low 50s with partly cloudy skies and mild 2-5 MPH winds.
