Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 9 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 51.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Ravens (2-5) just took down the Bears 30-16 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (2-6) just upset the Falcons 34-10, winning outright as 7-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back Baltimore with Lamar Jackson returning from his hamstring injury and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Ravens.
However, despite this lopsided public support the Ravens have remained relatively stagnant at -7.5. Anytime the line has crept up to Ravens -8 we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Miami plus the points, dropping the line back down to Baltimore -7.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up from -7.5 to -8 or -8.5. The fact that this line has barely budged despite the heavy public Ravens betting signals a sharp line freeze on Miami +7.5.
The Dolphins are offering notable “bet against the public” value as Miami is only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game.
Primetime dogs are 15-10 ATS (67%) with a 14% ROI this season and 156-136 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more, like the Dolphins here, they improve to 6-2 ATS (75%) with a 43% ROI this season and 59-40 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2020.
Big home dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 46-28 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2022.
Tua Tagovailoa is 23-13 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI at home including 8-3 ATS (73%) with a 37% ROI as a home dog. He is 6-0 ATS as a dog getting 6-points or more.
The Ravens are allowing 30 PPG on defense this season, ranking 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL.
Sharps seem to be expecting a higher scoring game tonight, as the total has been bet up from 48.5 to 51.5.
The upward movement is especially notable because the public thinks the total is too high and 62% of bets are taking the under, yet the number rose. This signals a rare “bet against the public” over opportunity for contrarian bettors looking to root for points and go against the grain.
Overs are 65-55 (54%) with a 3% ROI this season. Non-division overs are 50-37 (58%) with a 9% ROI. When the total is 49.5 or more, the over is 8-5 (62%) with a 17% ROI this season.
The Ravens are 6-1 (86%) to the over this season, tied with the Vikings for the best over team in the NFL. The Dolphins are 6-2 (75%) to the over, tied for the 2nd best over team in the NFL.
Weather looks ideal at Hard Rock Stadium tonight, with the forecast calling for low 70s with mild 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation.
