Week 16 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-14, 43)
The Saints (5-9) have dropped two of their last three games and just came up short against the Commanders 20-19 but covered as 7.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (10-4) have won four of their last five games and just crushed the Seahawks 30-13, easily covering as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 13.5-point home favorite. Early smart money laid the points with the Packers, driving Green Bay up from -13.5 to -14.5. That’s when we saw some buyback on the Saints plus the hook (+14.5), dropping the line back down to Packers -14. We are currently seeing the Packers -14 juiced up to -115, signaling a possible rise back up to -14.5 between now and kickoff.
At DraftKings, the Packers are receiving 67% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. However, at Circa the Saints are taking in 49% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars, signaling an undecided public but also respected smart money on New Orleans plus the points. New Orleans has correlative betting value as a two-touchdown dog in a low total game (43), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover.
Big dogs +14 or more are 2-2 ATS this season but 36-30 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs getting 14-points or more are 7-0 ATS since 2017. Double digit favorites on Monday Night Football are 13-32 ATS (29%) since 2003. This line movement looks similar to the Patriots-Bills game yesterday, in which Buffalo moved from -13.5 to -14/-14.5 at home. Both games featured a team who was eliminated from the postseason going on the road against a Super Bowl contender in a potential let down spot. The Bills won the game 24-21 but New England covered the two-touchdown spread. Those looking to play Saints tonight would be wise to shop for a hook, which ESPN BET (+14.5 at -115) and FanDuel (+14.5 at -120) are currently offering.
Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 41.5 to 43. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 67% of bets and 86% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 70% of bets and 80% of dollars. Both books are displaying a Pro and Joe over bet split, with a majority of public bettors but also a larger share of smart money banking on a higher scoring game. Monday Night Football overs are 12-7 (63%) this season. When the total is 43 or less, Monday Night Football overs are a perfect 5-0 this season. The forecast calls for low 30s with relatively mild 8 MPH winds and gusts up to 13 MPH.
Player Prop to Consider
Foster Moreau over 21.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM): Moreau has gone over this number in three of his last four games. He just caught 4 passes for 39 yards and a touchdown last week against the Commanders. In Spencer Rattler’s four appearances this season, Moreau has caught 4 passes for 39 yards (4 targets), 2 passes for 38 yards (2 targets), 2 passes for 54 yards (2 targets) and zero catches for zero yards (1 target). The Saints are a big dog in this game, which means if they are trailing and need to catch up they will likely focus on passing the ball. The weather is also relatively mild for a late December game at Lambeau, which bodes well for offensive output. Be sure to shop around for this prop if you’re interested in playing it, as BetMGM is offering 21.5 (over -115) while Caesars is 22.5 (over -121), FanDuel 23.5 (over -110) and DraftKings 23.5 (over -115).
