Week 17 of the NFL regular season rolls on today with a tripleheader of Saturday games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 42.5) at New England Patriots

The Chargers (9-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 34-27 win over the Broncos, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (3-12) have lost five in a row and just fell to the Bills 24-21 but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs.

The early lookahead opener for this game was Los Angeles -5.5 on the road. We quickly saw this line get adjusted down to Chargers -4.5. However, over the past two days we’ve seen Los Angeles rise back up to -5.5 and now the Chargers have moved to -6 on game day. Essentially, all late movement is breaking toward Los Angeles laying the points. Game day movement is especially notable as it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. At DraftKings, the Chargers are taking in 83% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support. However, at Circa the Patriots are only taking in 16% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars. This means New England is the top contrarian play of the day and also offers buy-low inflated line value at +6.

The Chargers have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Road favorites are 53-39 ATS (58%) this season. The Chargers are likely to be a popular teaser play (-6 down to a pick’em), which means they just have to win the game. Road favorites are 71-26 (73%) straight up this season. Los Angeles enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Patriots played on Sunday. Motivation may also play a role, as the Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a victory while New England has long been eliminated from postseason contention.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 39.5 to 42.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 53% of bets and 52% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 77% of bets and 64% of dollars. The forecast calls for low 40s with 6 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers at Gillette Stadium.

4:30 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 50)

The Broncos (9-6) just had their four-game winning come to an end, falling to the Chargers 34-27 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (7-8) have won three straight and just brushed aside the Browns 24-6, covering as 10-point home favorites.

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the home favorite, as the Bengals are receiving 60% of spread bets at DraftKings and 66% of spread bets at Circa. Thanks to the lopsided support, the Bengals are being juiced up -3 (-115), with several shops now hanging -3.5. However, once the hook has become available we’ve seen some resistance and buyback on the Broncos, with Denver being juiced up +3.5 (-115). Reading between the lines, it appears as though we have dueling respected action on Bengals -3 and Broncos +3.5.

Denver has “bet against the public” value as the Broncos are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet standalone game. The Broncos also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bengals played on Sunday.

We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has been steamed up from 47.5 to 50, with some books as high as 50.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 66% of bets and 82% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 55% of bets and 77% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the over. These are two of the best over teams in the NFL, with the Bengals 10-5 to the over and the Broncos 9-5-1 to the over.

8 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 47.5)

The Cardinals (7-8) have dropped four of their last five games and just fell to the Panthers 36-30 in overtime, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Rams (9-6) have won four in a row and just took down the Jets 19-9, covering as 3-point road favorites.

The early lookahead opener for this game was Rams -3.5 at home. However, since that time we’ve seen a major adjustment in favor of Los Angeles, driving the Rams up from -3.5 to -6.5. We even saw this line reach Rams -7, at which point some Cardinals +7 buyback hit the market and dropped the line back down to -6.5 where it rests now. At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 71% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. However, at Circa the Cardinals are receiving 38% of spread bets but 50% of dollars. Arizona has value as a contrarian divisional dog, as they are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in a primetime game in addition to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.

The Rams are likely to be a popular teaser play (-6.5 to -0.5), meaning they just have to win the game and not cover the spread. Motivation would appear to be in favor of Los Angeles, as the Rams are in position to win the division and earn a playoff berth while the Cardinals have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. This is also a revenge game for the Rams, who got blown out by the Cardinals 41-10 in Week 2.

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 49 to 47.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (57% of bets at DraftKings and 67% of bets at Circa), yet sharp reverse line movement forced the number to fall. The under would qualify as a contrarian primetime under and divisional under system match.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR