Today the NFL Divisional Round kicks off with a doubleheader of playoff action to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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4:30 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 41.5)

The Texans (11-7) are the 4-seed and just took down the Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chiefs (15-2) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. In Week 18, Kansas City rested their starters and lost to the Broncos 38-0, failing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Sharps laid the wood early on, steaming the Chiefs up from -7.5 to -8.5. At DraftKings, Kansas City is receiving 43% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Chiefs are taking in 60% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Kansas City. Those looking to follow the sharp Chiefs move but also looking for some added security in what might be a close game could instead elect to play Kansas City in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Chiefs down from -8.5 to -2.5, value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

Houston has correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number. Playoff dogs are 55-37 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2017. Fading teams who just received a first round bye has gone 42-30 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI since 2004. Patrick Mahomes is 22-32 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7-points or more in his career, including 3-3 ATS in the postseason. C.J. Stroud is 10-6 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career, including 2-1 ATS in the postseason. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the road team historically.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. This movement is notable because the public is playing the over (65% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 47% of bets but a whopping 72% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for low 20s with cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match. Playoff unders are 5-1 this postseason and 51-40 (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018. Houston went 11-6 to the under during the regular season (tied for the best under team in the NFL). Kansas City finished 10-7 to the under (tied for the 2nd best).

Player Prop to Consider: Samaje Perine over 9.5 receiving yards (-110)

Perine has gone over this number in seven straight games and 12 of his last 13 games. He just caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 18 against the Broncos. When Perine faced the Texans in Week 18, he caught 3 passes for 50 yards.

8 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 55.5)

The Commanders (13-5) are the 6-seed and just upset the Buccaneers 23-20 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (15-2) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. In Week 18, Detroit crushed Minnesota 31-9, easily covering as 3-point home favorites.

Oddsmakers had a difference of opinion when it comes to this opener, as some shops opened Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite while others opened Detroit as a 10.5-point home favorite. Since that time, we’ve seen the Lions settle at -9.5. Several shops are showing some liability on the Commanders entering gameday, as Washington is juiced up +9.5 at -115. At Circa, the Commanders are receiving 33% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. At DraftKings, Detroit is taking in 52% of spread bets and 70% of dollars.

The Commanders match several playoff betting systems. Playoff dogs are 55-37 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2017. Fading teams receiving a first round bye has gone 42-30 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI since 2004. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 40-21 ATS (66%) with a 27% ROI since 2017. Washington is also a “dog who can score” system match (28.2 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically.

In terms of the total, it opened at 56 and has dipped slightly to 55.5. At DraftKings, 45% of bets and 59% of dollars are taking the over. At Circa, the under is receiving 47% of bets and 50% of dollars. When the total is 47 or more (high total), the under is 3-0 this postseason and 31-17 (65%) with a 24% ROI in the playoffs since 2018.

Player Prop to Consider: Zach Ertz over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)

This is a bit of a buy-low on Ertz, who caught 3 passes for 26 yards last week against the Bucs. However, Ertz has gone over this number in 9 of his last 12 regular season games. Ertz finished with 91 targets during the regular season, second most on the team behind Terry McLaurin (117).

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