Today we kick off NFL Week 18 with a pair of high-stakes matchups that will decide playoff positioning and seeding. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:30 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 43.5)
The Panthers (8-8) have rotated wins and losses over the past nine weeks and just fell to the Seahawks 27-10, failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Buccaneers (7-9) have dropped four straight and just came up short against the Dolphins 20-17, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings, a closer look at the line history has shown consistent liability on the road dog Panthers plus the points.
Carolina briefly dipped down to +2.5 at times throughout the week and the Panthers are currently being juiced up +3 (-115 or -120) on gameday. This line has only stayed the same or leaned toward the Panthers. It has never been juiced up to Tampa Bay or risen up to Buccaneers -3.5.
Carolina has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Divisional dogs are 42-37 ATS (53%) with a 2.5% ROI this season and 296-253 ATS (54%) with a 3.5% ROI since 2020. Road divisional dogs +3 or less are 10-6 ATS (62%) with a 21% ROI this season and 63-43 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI since 2020.
Road dogs coming off a blowout loss of 17-points or more, like the Panthers here, are 14-9 ATS (61%) with a 16% ROI this season and 99-80 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2018.
When both teams are coming off a loss, the divisional dog is 89-63 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2020.
Carolina has additional betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
In terms of the total, it opened at 43.5, touched as high as 44.5 and has since come back down to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 27% of bets and 39% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 30% of bets and a whopping 90% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Outdoor divisional unders are 30-27 (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 329-279 (54%) with a 4.5% ROI since 2017.
The forecast calls for high 60s, low 70s with cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
8 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks (13-3) have won six straight and just brushed aside the Panthers 27-10, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the 49ers (12-4) have also won six in a row and just outlasted the Bears 42-38 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening the 49ers as a short 1-point home favorite and others opening the Seahawks as a short 1-point road favorite.
Regardless of the opener, the public is siding with the 49ers at home.
However, despite 63% of spread bets at DraftKings backing San Francisco we’ve actually seen this line tick up further toward the Seahawks, steaming Seattle up to a 2.5-point road favorite. Many books are juicing up the Seahawks -2.5 (-115) on gameday, indicating further liability on the road chalk.
The Seahawks have rare “fade the trendy dog” value as an unpopular contrarian favorite, receiving only 37% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ABC/ESPN.
At Circa, Seattle is taking in only 31% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of the road chalk.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added cushion in the event of a close game could elect to play Seattle on the moneyline at -145.
At DraftKings, the Seahawks are taking in 30% of moneyline bets and 44% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Seattle is receiving 28% of moneyline bets and 35% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Seattle victory.
Mike Macdonald is 14-2 (885) straight up with a 62% ROI on the road as head coach of the Seahawks.
Those looking to go the other way and back the 49ers could also look at a San Francisco Wong Teaser. By taking the 49ers up from +2.5 to +8.5, value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, the public expects a high-scoring shootout and 74% of bets are taking the over. However, despite this lopsided over betting we’ve seen the line fall from 48.5 to 47.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the under.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 26% of bets and 45% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 28% of bets and 50% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp action split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 50s with cloudy skies, 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 25 MPH and possibly some rain.
Primetime unders are 30-27 (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 131-98 (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2022.
Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team and 57% to the under, historically.
