Week 17 of the NFL regular season continues tonight as the Seattle Seahawks face off against the Chicago Bears. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-4, 42) at Chicago Bears
The Seahawks (8-7) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Vikings 27-24, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bears (4-11) have lost nine straight games and just got rolled by the Lions 34-17, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs.
The early opener for this game was Seattle listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Since that time, we’ve seen nothing but one-way movement in favor of Seattle, with the Seahawks moving up from -1.5 to -4. Some books are even approaching -4.5. Pros and Joes seem to both be laying the points with Seattle, as the Seahawks are taking in 81% of spread bets at DraftKings and 73% of spread bets at Circa. It’s been a big year for chalk this season, with favorites going 127-108 ATS (54%). Road favorites in particular have been a cash cow, going 53-38 ATS (58%). Seattle has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
Although it’s a bit expensive, sharps also seem to be eyeing Seattle to win straight up (-205 on the moneyline). At Circa, Seattle is taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At DraftKings, the Seahawks are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. Favorites are 171-71 (71%) straight up this season. Road favorites are 70-26 (73%) straight up. Both teams are allowing roughly 23 points per game on defense. Seattle has the better offense, though, averaging 22.6 PPG compared to 18.9 PPG for Chicago. Motivation would appear to be on Seattle’s side, as the Seahawks are fighting for a playoff berth while the Bears have long been eliminated from postseason contention.
In terms of the total, we saw the line open at 41.5 and rise to as high as 43.5 before some under buyback appeared, dropping it back down to 42 where it rests now. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 63% of bets and 73% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 75% of bets and 99% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” smart money discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game. Overs are 125-113 (53%) this season. The forecast calls for low 40s with 5-10 MPH winds and possibly some light rain at Soldier Field.
Player Prop to Consider
Caleb Williams Over 215.5 passing yards (-110): Williams has gone over this number in five of his last six home games and four of his last six games overall. He just passed for 334 yards last week against the Lions. The Seahawks are allowing 227 yards per game over their past three games, giving up 246 yards to Sam Darnold, 229 yards to Jordan Love and 259 yards to Kyler Murray. The Bears are also a dog in this matchup, meaning they are likely to focus on the passing game if they are trailing, especially late in the game where prevent defense can lead to an accumulation of garbage yards. Chicago throws the ball on 59.8% of their snaps, the 9th most in the NFL.
