Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for this primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 43.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks (2-1) just demolished the Saints 44-13 in Week 3, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (2-1) just came up short against the 49ers 16-15 but managed to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Seahawks, flipping Seattle from a 2.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. This movement toward Seattle has been steady and consistent without any notable buyback on Arizona. In other words, we are seeing one-way wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Seahawks.
With oddsmakers awarding roughly 2-points for home field advantage nowadays, this means the Seahawks would be roughly a 3.5-point favorite on a neutral site.
At DraftKings, Seattle is taking in 76% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe action in favor of Arizona from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Those looking to follow the sharp “dog to favorite” line move but wary of laying points in what might be a close game could instead elect to play Seattle on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Seahawks are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Seahawks are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Seattle victory.
Favorites are 35-13 (73%) straight up with a 10% ROI this season.
Chalk has also been a smart bet to win outright on Thursday Night Football as favorites are 3-0 straight up this season and 207-78 (73%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2006.
Mike Macdonald is 8-1 straight up on the road as head coach of the Seahawks. He is also 2-0 straight up against Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is 6-14 (30%) straight up as a home dog in his career.
Those looking to back the home dog Cardinals would we wise to consider an Arizona teaser (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps have also quietly leaned under in this game, dropping the total from 44 to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 39% of bets and 49% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 35% of bets and a hefty 66% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 6-5 (55%) this season and 196-141 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 6-4 (60%) this season and 93-74 (56%) since 2022. Unders are 26-22 (54%) with a 4% ROI this season overall.
