Today we have a loaded slate of NFL Week 13 action on tap with 11-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-6, 44.5)

The Titans (3-8) just ended a two-game losing streak with a 32-27 win over the Texans, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Commanders (7-5) have lost three straight and just fell to the Cowboys 34-26, losing outright as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as high as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for Washington and they’re laying the points with the Commanders, who have a far-better record and enjoy home-field advantage. However, despite receiving 66% of spread at DraftKings, we’ve seen Washington fall from -7.5 to -6, with some shops even falling as low as -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. The Titans have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 34% of spread bets. Road dogs getting 6-points or more are 27-15 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI this season. Tennessee also has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (2-9) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (7-4-1). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically. In terms of the total, the public is playing the over (65% of bets at DraftKings), yet the line hasn’t budged. This indicates a bit of a sharp under line freeze, with books reluctant to raise the total despite the heavy over support. At Circa Sports, the under is receiving only 18% of bets but 30% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 40s with partly cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds.

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-3.5, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans (7-5) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Titans 32-27, losing outright as 8-point home favorites. Similarly, the Jaguars (2-9) have lost four straight and just got crushed by the Lions 52-6, failing to cover as 14-point road dogs. The early opener for this game was Houston as high as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Texans to bounce back against the lowly Jaguars and 85% of spread bets are laying the points with Houston on the road. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Texans fall from -6.5 to -3.5. The movement toward Jacksonville has been consistent and steady all week, especially following the news that Trevor Lawrence is likely to play after missing the last two games with an injury. The Jaguars are the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 15% of spread bets at DraftKings. At Circa Sports, Jacksonville is receiving only 24% of spread bets but a whopping 85% of spread dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money grabbing the points with the unpopular home dog. Jacksonville enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Houston played on Sunday and now must travel on the road. When both teams are coming off a loss and are then playing a divisional game, the dog is 71-48 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2020. Divisional dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 21-12 ATS (64%) with a 21% ROI this season. C.J. Stroud is just 6-11 ATS (35%) as a favorite in his career.

4:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers (5-6) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 30-7 blowout win over the Giants, taking care of business as 6-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-8) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Chiefs 30-27 but covering as 10.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy Buccaneers blowout win and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Tampa Bay. However, despite receiving such lopsided support the line hasn’t budged off Bucs -6.5. In fact, it’s even fallen to -6 at times throughout the week. This signals a sharp line freeze on Carolina, as the line has stayed the same or even briefly fallen in their favor despite being the highly unpopular play. Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 32-19 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI this season. Divisional dogs getting 6-points or more are 16-5 ATS (76%) with a 44% ROI this season. Carolina has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (4-7) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (7-4). We’ve also seen some sharp money take the over, raising the total from 44.5 to 46.5. The over is receiving 72% of bets and dollars at DraftKings, signaling both public and sharp support on a higher scoring game. The Panthers are 8-3 to the over this season, second best in the NFL. The Bucs are 7-4 to the over, ranking 7th best. Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for low 50s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

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