Today we have a loaded NFL Week 16 Sunday on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5) at New York Giants
The Vikings (6-8) have won two straight and just upset the Cowboys 34-26, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (2-12) have dropped eight games in a row and just fell to the Commanders 29-21, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with Minnesota.
This lopsided betting pushed Minnesota up from -1.5 to -3.
However, once we reached the key number of 3 we saw some sharp inflated dog buyback on Giants +3, dropping the line back down to Vikings -2.5 where we stand on gameday.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 27% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 28% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Giants here, are 42-31 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home dogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 21-15 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season.
The Giants have buy-low value as an unpopular dog on a losing skid against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak.
Those looking to go contrarian and play New York would be wise to shop around for a +3, as a few outlier books are hanging Giants +3 (-120) while the rest of the market sits at +2.5.
The Giants are also in a prime Wong Teaser spot. By taking New York up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-driven bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Bengals (4-10) have dropped two straight and just got crushed by the Ravens 24-0, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6-8) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Steelers 28-15 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Cincinnati a short 1.5-point road favorite.
Once it was announced that Miami would start rookie QB Quinn Ewers over the benched Tua Tagovailoa, we saw a massive line move in favor of the Bengals, steaming Cincinnati up to a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is also hammering Cincinnati, who is taking in 71% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, once the line reached a high water mark of Bengals -4.5, we’ve seen inflated dog buyback on Miami plus the hook (+4.5), dropping several books back down to +4 on gameday.
At DraftKings, Miami is receiving 29% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Dolphins are taking in 21% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Dogs getting 4-points or more who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Dolphins here, are 53-42 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home conference dogs coming off a loss getting 5-points or less are 108-85 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018.
John Hussey, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the home team historically.
The Dolphins are 4-3 at home this season. The Bengals are 2-5 on the road.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 50.5)
The Chargers (10-4) have won three in a row and just upset the Chiefs 16-13, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Cowboys (6-7-1) have lost two straight and just fell to the Vikings 34-26, losing outright as 5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 63% of spread bets are taking the points with Los Angeles.
However, despite the Chargers receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen the line remain relatively stagnant at Cowboys -1.5. This signals a sharp “line freeze” in favor of Dallas, as the line has stayed right where it’s at despite the public pounding Los Angeles.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are taking in 37% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, Dallas is receiving 38% of spread bets and a whopping 76% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating smart money fading the trendy dog Chargers and instead backing the unpopular contrarian favorite Cowboys.
Favorites off a loss, like Dallas here, are 45-39 ATS (54%) with a 2% ROI this season. Non-conference favorites off a loss are even better, going 18-11 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting the Cowboys on the moneyline (-120).
At DraftKings, Dallas is receiving 34% of moneyline bets and 44% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up victory for the home team.
Non-conference favorites are 49-21 (70%) straight up this season and 315-136 (70%) straight up with a 2% ROI since 2020.
Dallas also has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (50.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the small favorite to cover.
The Cowboys have additional buy-low value as an unpopular favorite on a losing streak against a sell-high popular dog on a winning streak.
