Today we have a loaded NFL Week 16 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-7, 47.5) at Chicago Bears

The Lions (12-2) just saw their 11-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Bills 48-42 and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bears (4-10) have lost eight straight games and just got rolled by the Vikings 30-12, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the high-flying Lions. However, despite receiving 88% of spread bets at DraftKings and 90% of spread bets at Circa, the Lions haven’t budged off -7. In fact, they’ve even briefly dipped down to -6.5 at times throughout the week. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Bears, as the line has barely moved despite such heavy betting on Detroit. Normally, if a team opens -7 and receives such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up to -7.5 or -8. The fact this line didn’t rise indicates some sharp liability on Chicago plus the key number of +7 at home. The Bears are one of the top contrarian plays of the day, as they are only taking in roughly 10% of spread bets across the market. Dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 37-24 ATS (61%) with as 16% ROI this season. Divisional dogs getting 7-points or more are 10-4 ATS (71%) with a 35% ROI this season. The Bears are 4-3 at home this season compared to 0-7 on the road. The Lions have a lengthy injury report and have placed 16 defensive players on injured reserve this season. Detroit just lost starting CB Carlton Davis, DT Alim McNeill and RB David Montgomery to injuries following last week’s game against the Bills.

4:25 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 41)

The Jaguars (3-11) have lost six of their last seven games and just fell to the Jets 32-25, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Raiders (2-12) have lost ten straight and just came up short against the Falcons 15-9 but managed to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Las Vegas listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public sees two bad teams and says “why not take the points with Jacksonville?” However, despite 58% of spread bets at DraftKings backing the Jaguars, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Raiders -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Las Vegas, with wiseguys fading the trendy dog Jags and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. At DraftKings, the Raiders are only receiving 42% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Raiders are taking in 47% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Las Vegas. The Raiders have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could also elect to play Las Vegas on the moneyline at -140. The Raiders are receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of pro money backing Las Vegas to win outright at home. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 39.5 to 41. The over is receiving 44% of bets and 54% of bets at DraftKings and 54% of bets and 74% of dollars at Circa, both sharp money over splits. Both teams are giving up roughly 27 PPG, ranking 27th and 28th in points allowed. Aidan O’Connell is expected to start for the Raiders after missing last week’s game with a knee injury.

4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44.5) at Miami Dolphins

The 49ers (6-8) have dropped four of their last five games and just fell to the Rams 12-6, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Dolphins (6-8) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Texans 20-12, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this roughly split ticket count we’ve seen the line flip in favor of San Francisco, driving the 49ers from a 1.5-point road dog to a 2-point road favorite. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the 49ers. San Francisco is only receiving 55% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars at DraftKings. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 57% of spread bets but a whopping 93% of spread dollars on the 49ers. Both books are displaying sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet splits on San Francisco. Road favorites are 48-35 ATS (58%) this season with a 10% ROI. Those looking to protect themselves from a tight 49ers win that may not cover the spread could elect to play San Francisco on the moneyline at -125. The 49ers are taking in 56% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, another sharp split in favor of San Francisco winning straight up. Road favorites are 66-20 (77%) straight up with a 16% ROI this season. Non division road favorites are 111-46 (71%) straight up with a 4% ROI this season. The 49ers enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Dolphins played on Sunday. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the road team historically. We’ve also seen this total plummet from as high as 49 down to 44.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 31% of bets but 54% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 47% of bets but 94% of dollars. Miami is expected to miss WR Jaylen Waddle with a knee injury.

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