Today we have a loaded NFL Week 17 slate on tap with 10 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-7, 42.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks (12-3) have won five straight games and just outlasted the Rams 38-37 in overtime but failed to cover as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (8-7) have rotated wins and losses over their last eight games and just edged the Buccaneers 23-20, winning outright as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Panthers plus the hook, dropping Carolina down from +7.5 to +7 across the market.
At DraftKings, Carolina is taking in 56% of spread bets but a hefty 72% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in favor of the home dog.
Big home dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 15-7 ATS (68%) with a 30% ROI this season and 84-53 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2020.
The Panthers are 9-4 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI as a dog this season, the best dog record in the NFL. Bryce Young is 12-5 ATS (71%) with a 34% ROI as a home dog in his career, including 5-0 ATS as a home dog this season.
Carolina also offers correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 35.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Steelers (9-6) have won three in a row and just took down the Lions 29-24, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Browns (3-12) have dropped four straight and just fell to the Bills 23-20 but managed to cover as 10.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 75% of spread bets and laying the points with the Steelers.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Pittsburgh remain stagnant at -4.5. In fact, many shops have inched down to -4 and even touched as low as -3.5 throughout the week.
Normally, if a team is taking in such heavy betting you would expect them to rise up from -4.5 to -5 or higher. The fact that this line has stayed right where its at or even dipped down toward Cleveland signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on the Browns plus the points.
Cleveland is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day, as the Browns are only receiving 25% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Home dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season facing a favorite who made the playoffs the previous season are 24-16 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI this season. Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 45-35 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Browns have additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 41-35 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 295-251 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Cleveland also offers notable teaser value. By taking the Browns up from +4.5 to +10.5, savvy bettors can pass through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 39.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Saints (5-10) have won three in a row and just brushed aside the Jets 29-6, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, the Titans (3-12) have won two of their last three and just dismissed the Chiefs 26-9, easily winning outright as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Saints.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen New Orleans fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Titans, as the line has moved in favor of Tennessee despite being the highly unpopular play.
The Titans are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as Tennessee is only receiving 29% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Many pros have also foregone the points and taken the Titans to win straight up, as Tennessee is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a massive 88% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Those looking to follow the line move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could elect to target Tennessee in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking the Titans up from +1.5 to +7.5, value-minded pros can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
The Titans are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games.
