Today we have a loaded NFL Week 17 slate on tap with nine games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders (-2, 37.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Raiders (3-12) just snapped a ten-game losing skid with a 19-14 win over the Jaguars, covering as a 2-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Saints (5-10) have dropped three of their last four games and just got crushed by the Packers 34-0, failing to cover as 14-point road dogs.

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen a notable adjustment in favor of Las Vegas, as the Raiders have flipped from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2-point road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Raiders. Las Vegas is only receiving 59% of spread bets at DraftKings and 57% of spread bets at Circa, indicating just slight public support. Normally, a slight majority of bets wouldn’t be enough to flip a line so drastically. So, we know based upon the line flip that pro money has sided with the road team.

Road favorites are 54-39 ATS (58%) this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could also elect to play the Raiders on the moneyline at at -125. Las Vegas is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars at Circa, further evidence of pro money playing the Raiders to win the game. Road favorites are 72-26 (74%) straight up this season. Las Vegas has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Raiders also enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Saints are on a short week having played on the road on Monday night.

We could be looking at a lower scoring game as well, as the total has dipped from 39.5 to 37.5. The under is receiving 57% of bets and 66% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 38)

The Cowboys (7-8) have won four of their last five games and just took down the Buccaneers 26-24, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (12-3) just had their ten-game win streak snapped, falling to the Commanders 36-33 and losing outright as 4-point road favorites.

The early opener for this game was Eagles -11.5 at home. However, once Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a concussion and backup Kenny Pickett would start in his place, we saw Philadelphia plummet from -11.5 to -7.5. This speaks to the value of a starting quarterback and his affect on the spread. The Cowboys are receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings and 66% of spread bets at Circa, indicating a slight public lean at a national “square” book but also a majority of respected wagers at a respected “sharp” book out in Vegas. We are also seeing the Cowboys +7.5 juiced up to -115, signaling further liability on Dallas and a possible game-day drop down to the key number of 7.

Dallas has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Cowboys also have correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected points making it harder for the bigger favorite to cover.

The total has come crashing down from an early opener of 43.5 to 38. This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over at DraftKings (77% of bets), yet the total has fallen. At Circa, the under is only taking in 44% of bets but a hefty 88% of dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. Weather could also play a factor here, as the forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH. This qualifies as a divisional under and windy under system match.

8:20 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-3.5, 46.5)

The Falcons (8-7) have won two straight games and just won Michael Penix’s debut, crushing the Giants 34-7 and easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Commanders (10-5) have won three in a row and just upset the Eagles 36-33, winning outright as 4-point home dogs.

This line opened with Washington listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Commanders. However, despite receiving 79% of spread bets at DraftKings and 74% of spread bets at Circa, we’ve seen Washington fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Also, the Falcons are being juiced up +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further drop down to the key number of 3 on game day. This indicates one-way liability and sharp reverse line movement on Atlanta plus the points, as the line has moved consistently in their favor despite being the unpopular play. At Circa, the Falcons are only taking in 26% of spread bets but a hefty 90% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Atlanta is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as they are taking in roughly one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game.

In terms of the total, it opened at 46.5 and rose to 47.5, at which point some inflated under buyback hit the market and dropped it back down to 46.5 where it rests now. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 41% of bets and 47% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 45% of bets and 55% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian under bet split. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH and possibly some rain. This qualifies as a contrarian primetime under and windy under system match.

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