The NFL Playoffs continue today with a tripleheader of Wild Card matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 51.5)
The Bills (12-5) have won five of their last six games and just crushed the Jets 35-8, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (13-4) have won eight straight and just dominated the Titans 41-7, cruising as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite the Bills receiving a slight majority of tickets we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of Jacksonville, steaming the Jags from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Jags at home.
At Circa, Jacksonville is taking in 59% of spread bets and a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of heavy pro action out in Vegas backing the home team.
Many sharps have looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting the Jags on the moneyline at -125. At Circa, Jacksonville is taking in 56% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Jags win.
Those looking to go the other way and back Buffalo might prefer to play the Bills in a Wong Teaser. By taking Buffalo up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 52.5 to 51.5, with some shops inching down to 51 on gameday.
This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (72% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 36% of bets and 53% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 60s with cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds.
High playoff totals of 47 or more are 31-20 (61%) with a 17% ROI to the under since 2018.
4:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 44.5)
The 49ers (12-5) just saw their six-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Seahawks 13-3 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Eagles (11-6) just saw their three-game win streak evaporate, falling to the Commanders 24-17 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought the opener was a bit short and have steamed Philadelphia up from -3.5 to -6.
At DraftKings, Philadelphia is receiving only 32% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Eagles are taking in 35% of spread bets and a hefty 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
However, now that we’ve reached the semi key number of 6, we’ve seen some slight inflated dog buyback on San Francisco, as the 49ers are being juiced up +6 (-115) at a few shops.
Playoff dogs are 2-0 ATS this postseason and 62-38 ATS (62%) with a 20% ROI since 2017.
Wild Card dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the 49ers here, are 2-0 ATS this postseason and 23-9 ATS (72%) with a 40% ROI since 2017.
Jalen Hurts is 22-15 ATS (60%) as a favorite of 5.5-points or less in his career. However, he is just 14-17 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 6-points or more.
We’ve also seen some pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 48% of bets and 60% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid to high 30s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-3.5, 45.5)
The Chargers (11-6) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Broncos 19-3, failing to cover as 15.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Patriots (14-3) have won three in a row and just brushed aside the Dolphins 38-10, easily covering as 14.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with New England listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 65% of spread bets and rushing to the window to lay the points with the Patriots.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Patriots remain stagnant at -3.5.
Normally, if a team is receiving roughly two-thirds of tickets you would expect them to tick up from -3.5 to -4 or -4.5.
The fact that we haven’t seen this happen signals a sharp line freeze in favor of the Chargers plus the points, as the line hasn’t budged despite heavy public betting on New England.
The Chargers are a top “bet against the public” play as they are only receiving 35% of spread bets in a nationally televised primetime playoff game.
Meanwhile, Circa is showing 37% of spread bets and a hefty 71% of spread dollars on the Chargers, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split on Los Angeles plus the points from the wiseguys in the desert.
Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Chargers here, are 16-1 ATS (94%) with an 84% ROI since 2017.
Los Angeles has additional betting system value as a primetime dog, which have gone 12-8 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI in the postseason since 2020.
Justin Herbert is 18-12 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI as a dog in his career, including 13-6 ATS (68%) with a 32% ROI as a road dog and 12-2 ATS (86%) with a 60% ROI as a dog getting 3.5-points or more.
Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically.
