Today the NFL Playoffs continue with a pair of Divisional Round matchups. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3, 40.5)
The Texans (13-5) are the 5-seed and just dominated the Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card round, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (15-3) are the 2-seed and just took care of the Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round, cruising as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with New England listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit low and have pounced on the Patriots at home, pushing New England up from -2.5 to -3. The Patriots are being juiced up -3 (-115 or -120) and some shops have even ticked up to New England -3.5 on game day. In other words, all movement and liability has been in favor New England without any discernible buyback on Houston.
At DraftKings, the Patriots are receiving 59% of spread bets and a hefty 75% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in their favor.
Many sharps have looked to mitigate some risk by playing New England to win straight up on the moneyline (-175).
Divisional Round home favorites went 2-0 straight up yesterday and are now 21-8 (72%) straight up since 2018.
New England enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” edge as the the Patriots played last Sunday while the Texans are on a short week having played on Monday night and now must play their second straight road game.
The Texans will also be without star WR Nico Collins due to a concussion.
In terms of the total, it opened at 41, ticked down to 40.5 and has started to rise back up to 41 on game day.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 66% of bets and 65% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 38% of bets and 63% of dollars on the over.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 30s with cloudy skies, 5 MPH winds and snow showers that could become steady and heavy throughout the game.
The snow may provide another edge to the Patriots, who are used to the elements and play outdoors while the Texans are a warm weather dome team.
6:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 48.5) at Chicago Bears
The Rams (13-5) are the 5-seed and just outlasted the Panthers 34-31 in the Wild Card round but failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Bears (12-6) are the 2-seed and just came back to shock the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Early in the week, we saw the Rams creep up from -3.5 to -4. However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some sneaky sharp buyback on Chicago, as the Bears have ticked back down from +4 to +3.5 across the market.
At DraftKings, the Bears are taking in 62% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars, indicating modest Pro and Joe support from both sharps and the betting public.
However, Circa is showing 50% of spread bets and a hefty 70% of spread dollars on Chicago, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split on the home dog from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Bears here, are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 29-13 ATS (69%) with a 34% ROI since 2020.
Home playoff dogs are 2-1 ATS this postseason and 11-3 ATS (79%) with a 53% ROI since 2017.
Late window playoff dogs (4 p.m. ET or later) are 48-33 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI since 2017.
The Bears are 7-3 ATS (70%) with a 35% ROI as a dog this season. Chicago is also 7-2 at home.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tumble from 51 to 48.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 44% of bets and 52% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 62% of bets and a whopping 80% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
High playoff totals 47.5 or more are 1-0 to the under this postseason and 32-20 (62%) with a 19% ROI to the under since 2018.
Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 57% to the under, historically.
Weather could make a sizable impact here, as the forecast calls for roughly 15-20 degrees, cloudy skies, 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 25 MPH along with snow.
The inclement weather could provide an edge to Chicago, as they are a cold weather team used to the elements, as opposed to the Rams who are a warm weather dome team.
Matthew Stafford is just 1-9 in his last 10 games in the rain/snow.
The Bears are also playing their second straight home game while the Rams are playing their second straight road game.
Super Bowl Champion (DraftKings)
Seahawks +140
Rams +330
Patriots +450
Texans +750
Broncos +950
Bears +1600
