Today the NFL Playoffs resume with the AFC and NFC Championship games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (-3.5, 43.5) at Denver Broncos
The Patriots (16-3) are the 2-seed and just held off the Texans 28-16 in the Divisional Round, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Broncos (15-3) are the 1-seed and just outlasted the Bills 33-30 in overtime in the Divisional Round, covering as 1.5-point home favorites.
The early lookahead line for this game was roughly Denver -3 at home. However, following the news that Broncos QB Bo Nix would miss this game with an ankle injury and backup Jarrett Stidham would get the start in his place, we saw the line completely flip to New England -4.5 on the road.
The public sees an easy win and cover for the Patriots against a backup quarterback and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with New England.
This lopsided betting pushed the Patriots up from -4.5 to -5.5 early in the week.
However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback hit the Broncos plus the points, dropping Denver down from +5.5 to +3.5. Over the last 24-hours specifically, the Broncos have fallen from +4.5 to +3.5.
Essentially, we are looking at a massive sharp reverse line move in favor of Denver, as the line has fallen back toward the Broncos despite the public hammering New England.
Denver has notable “bet against the public” value as the Broncos are only receiving 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised playoff game on CBS.
Playoff dogs are 47-26 ATS (64%) with a 25% ROI since 2017. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor, like the Broncos here, are 21-11 ATS (66%) with a 27% ROI since 2017.
Playoff home dogs are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 12-3 ATS (80%) with a 56% ROI since 2017.
Denver has additional betting system value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 41 to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 44% of bets and 68% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 42% of bets and 62% of dollars. Both books are showing a rare sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
AFC/NFC championship game overs are 25-16 (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2004.
The forecast calls for chilly low to mid 20s with 8-12 MPH winds at Mile High.
6:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 45.5)
The Rams (14-5) are the 5-seed and just held off the Bears 20-17 in the Divisional Round but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (15-3) are the 1-seed and just destroyed the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round, easily covering as 7-point home favorites.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 74% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Seattle at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided betting we’ve seen the Seahawks remain stagnant at -2.5. Several shops are even juicing up the Rams side (+2.5 at -115) while a few others like Circa have inched down to Rams +2.
Normally, if a team is getting such heavy support you would expect to see them rise up from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. The fact that this line hasn’t budged and has even shown juice and line movement liability toward Los Angeles signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of the Rams plus the points.
The Rams are the top contrarian play of the day as they are only taking in 26% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised playoff game on FOX.
At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 34% of spread bets but a hefty 61% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of the road dog from the pros out in Vegas.
Those looking to go contrarian but also gain some added cushion could also target Los Angeles in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Rams up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
The Rams have betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Short playoff dogs getting 3-points or less are 28-12 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017.
Late window playoff dogs (4 p.m. ET or later) are 49-33 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2017.
Sean McVay is 30-22 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI as a dog in his career, including 6-2 ATS (75%) with a 46% ROI as a dog in the postseason.
Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the road team historically.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 47 to 45.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over at DraftKings (75% of bets), yet the line fell.
At Circa, the under is taking in 33% of bets and a hefty 66% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game from the wiseguys in the desert.
The forecast calls for low 40s/high 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 3 MPH winds.
Super Bowl Odds (DraftKings)
Seahawks +150
Rams +225
Patriots +260
Broncos +1000
