Today we have a loaded NFL Week 10 Sunday slate on tap with 12-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38.5)

The Patriots (2-7) just came up short against the Titans 20-17 but managed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Bears (4-4) have dropped two straight games and just got rolled by the Cardinals 29-9, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Chicago listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Bears at home. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen Chicago fall from -7 to -6.5, with some shops even down to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New England, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Big dogs getting 6-points or more are 26-13 ATS (67%) with a 26% ROI this season. New England has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (3-5-1) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (5-3). The Patriots have correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Land Clark, the lead ref, is 55% ATS to the road team, historically. Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 38.5. The under is only receiving 40% of bets but 54% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Weather could play a factor today, as the forecast calls for low 60s, partly cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds, making this a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

1 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 42.5)

The Broncos (5-4) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end last week, falling to the Ravens 41-10 and failing to cover as 9-point road dogs. Conversely, the undefeated Chiefs (8-0) just edged the Buccaneers in overtime 30-24 but failed to cover as 9-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Kansas City. However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -9 to -7.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Denver, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 22-11 ATS (67%) with a 26% ROI this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 111-90 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2017. Denver has additional value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Road divisional dogs are 168-129 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2019. The Broncos also have correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover. The Broncos enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage as they played on Sunday while the Chiefs played on Monday night and are now on a short week. Patrick Mahomes is just 22-29 ATS (43%) as a favorite of 6.5-points or more in his career.

4:25 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 46.5)

The Jets (3-6) just snapped a five-game losing skid with a 21-13 win over the Texans, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (5-4) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Bears 29-9, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Arizona as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we’ve seen the line move in favor of the Jets, driving New York up to a 1.5-point road favorite. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the action is balanced and the oddsmakers have no reason to adjust the spread. So, based on this line move we can infer that respected pro money is backing New York. Road favorites are 30-17 ATS (64%) with a 21% ROI this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could instead elect to play New York on the moneyline at -130. Road favorites are 36-13 (73%) straight up with a 16% ROI this season. New York has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Jets enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they played on Thursday while the Cardinals played on Sunday. New York is also a buy-low “bad” ATS team (3-6) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (6-3).

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