Today we have a loaded slate of NFL Week 11 action on tap with 12-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes. PS- We just added bet splits from Circa Sports, which caters to sharper bettors, and will be referencing that data moving forward to better understand where the smart money is leaning.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 43.5) at New England Patriots

The Rams (4-5) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Dolphins 23-15 and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (3-7) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bears 19-3, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. The early opener for this matchup was as high as Rams -6.5 on the road. We’ve quickly seen this line fall down to Rams -4.5. Some shops are even down to -4. This movement is notable because it’s been consistent and one-sided toward the Patriots all week despite the fact that the public is hammering Los Angeles (68% of spread bets). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Patriots plus the points at home. At Circa Sports, which caters to sharp bettors, the Patriots are receiving 41% of spread bets but 71% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Dogs getting 4-points or more and also coming off a win, like the Patriots here, are 12-7 ATS (63%) with a 20% ROI this season. New England enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Patriots played on Sunday while the Rams are on a short week having played at home on Monday night. Los Angeles is also in a classic “fade” schedule spot, as they are a West Coast team going cross country for an early 1 p.m. ET game. New England has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. In terms of the total, it opened at 43.5 and rose to 44.5. Then we saw some sharp under buyback drop it back down to 43.5. Some shops are inching down to 43 on gameday. The forecast calls for low 60s with clear skies and 7-10 MPH winds at Gillette Stadium.

4:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2, 44.5)

The Falcons (6-4) just had their two-game winning streak snapped, falling to the Saints 20-17 and losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos (5-5) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Chiefs 16-14 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. The early opener for this game was Falcons -2 on the road. We’ve seen drastic line movement in favor of Denver, with the Broncos moving from a 2-point home dog to a 2-point home favorite. Denver even reached as high as -2.5 at times throughout the week. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Denver, with pros backing the Broncos at home. Denver is only receiving 53% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating ever so slight public support but also respected sharp action. Denver has value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Those looking to follow the sharp Broncos move but also wary of now laying points could instead target Denver on the moneyline at -125. Non-conference favorites are 92-41 (69%) straight up with a 4% ROI over the past two seasons. The Falcons are in a situational fade spot as a dome team that now must go outdoors and deal with the altitude at Mile High. Denver has a big edge on defense, giving up only 17.7 PPG compared to the Falcons allowing 23.6 PPG. Wiseguys have also quietly leaned over, raising the total from 43.5 to 44.5. The over is receiving 51% of bets but 68% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.

4:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2, 46)

The undefeated Chiefs (9-0) just squeaked by the Broncos 16-14 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (8-2) have won five straight and just brushed aside the Colts 30-20, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was roughly a pick’em, with some shops hanging Chiefs -1 on the road and others Bills -1 at home. However, since that time we’ve seen a quick and consistent adjustment in favor of the Bills, with Buffalo moving to a 2-point home favorite. Some shops are even hanging Bills -2.5. The Bills are only receiving 44% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. This is arguably one of the top “Pros vs Joes” game of the week, as the public ican’t pass up Mahomes as a dog while the wiseguys are fading the trendy dog Chiefs and instead backing the contrarian favorite Bills at home. For those looking to mitigate some risk in a potentially close game, the Bills could be more attractive on the moneyline at -130. When both teams are coming off a win, the favorite is 119-51 (70%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2022. Josh Allen is 34-7 (83%) straight up with a 10% ROI as a home favorite. The Bills also have the edge offensively, averaging 29 PPG compared to the Chiefs averaging 24 PPG. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 46. The under is receiving 28% of bets but 40% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split.

8:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 48)

The Bengals (4-6) just lost a heartbreaker to the Ravens 35-34 but managed to cover as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (6-3) have won three straight and just dismissed the Titans 27-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 70% of spread bets are backing the Bengals as a road dog. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Chargers move from -1 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers hand out an additional half point to the public when they’re already hammering the Bengals to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with the unpopular Chargers at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. The Chargers have notable “bet against the public” value as they are a rare contrarian favorite only receiving 30% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime Sunday Night Football showdown. Los Angeles has a big edge defensively, allowing only 13 PPG while the Bengals are giving up 26 PPG. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -125. Primetime favorites are 26-9 (74%) straight up with an 11% ROI this season. In terms of the total, it opened as low as 45 and got bet up to 48. When the total is 48 or more the under is 19-13 (59%) with a 14% ROI this season. Primetime unders with a high total of 47 or more are 28-15 (65%) with a 25% ROI since 2022. The Chargers are 7-2 to the under this season, the second best under team in the NFL.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR