Today we have a loaded NFL Week 12 Sunday slate on tap with 11-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 39) at Chicago Bears

The Vikings (8-2) have won three straight games and just took down the Titans 23-13, covering as 6-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears (4-6) have lost four straight and just came up short against the Packers 20-19 but managed to cover as 6-point home dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Vikings. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Minnesota fall from -5 to -3.5. Most shops are juicing up Bears +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further gameday drop down to the key number of 3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bears plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite Chicago being the unpopular side. The movement toward Chicago has been steady and consistent all week with no discernible buyback on the Vikings. At Circa Sports, the Bears are receiving 30% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Chicago has buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak. Divisional dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 16-9 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season. We’ve also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 39.5. Some books are down to 39. This movement is notable because 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. Outdoor divisional unders are 241-197 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021. The forecast calls for high 40s with cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds at Soldier Field. The Bears and Vikings are both 7-3 to the under this season, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL.

4:25 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5)

The Cardinals (6-4) have won four four in a row and just crushed the Jets 31-6, easily winning outright as 2-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Seahawks (5-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-17 upset win over the 49ers, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 1-point home favorite. The Cardinals are being juiced up (+1 at -115), with some shops inching down toward a pick’em. This signals some sharp liability on the road team. At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 58% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa Sports, the Cardinals are receiving 68% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars, another wiseguy discrepancy. Arizona enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye while the Seahawks just played a physical divisional game against San Francisco. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 71-50 ATS (59%) to the road team, historically. Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 47.5. The under is receiving 45% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars at Circa Sports, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Outdoor divisional unders with a total of 47 or more are 78-49 (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2021. The forecast calls for mid 40s with 5 MPH winds but also rain that could potentially be heavy at times.

8:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles (8-2) have won six straight games and just took care of the Commanders 26-18, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Rams (5-5) have won four of their last five games and just outlasted the Patriots 28-22, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Eagles. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen Philadelphia remain frozen at -3. All of the juice liability is on the Rams (+3 at -115), with some shops even dipping down to -2.5 throughout the week. Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze or sneaky reverse line movement on the Rams plus the points, as the line has pretty much stayed the same or briefly moved in Los Angeles’s favor despite heavy public betting on the Eagles. Los Angeles is only receiving 24% of spread bets at DraftKings, offering notable “bet against the public” contrarian value in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football game. Primetime dogs getting 2.5-points or more are 117-97 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Los Angeles has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (4-6) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (6-4). In terms of the total, we saw it open at 47.5, rise as high as 50.5 and then fall back down to 48.5 where it rests now. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 43% of bets but 55% of dollars, a sharp bet split. When the total is 48 or more in a primetime game the under is 20-9 (69%) with a 33% ROI since 2022.

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