Today we have a loaded NFL Week 9 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-1.5, 40.5)
The Broncos (6-2) just brushed aside the Cowboys 44-24, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans (3-4) just held off the 49ers 26-15, covering as 3-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Broncos listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public says the Broncos are the far better team and 69% of spread bets are backing Denver.
However, despite the Broncos receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line completely flip to Texans -1.5 at home, with some books up to Houston -2 or even -2.5.
In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Texans. This “fade the trendy dog” movement toward Houston has been steady and consistent all week without any buyback on Denver.
At DraftKings, the Texans are only receiving 31% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars, sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
Sharps have also looked for some cushion by taking Houston on the moneyline (-125), as the Texans are receiving only 24% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the non-division home favorite is 73-24 (75%) straight up with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Home favorites are 53-21 (72%) straight up with a 3% ROI this season. If they also made the playoffs last season, home favorites improve to 32-10 (76%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season.
4:05 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 43.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Jaguars (4-3) just got rolled by the Rams 35-7, failing to cover as 3-point neutral site dogs in London. Similarly, the Raiders (2-5) just got blanked by the Chiefs 31-0, failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Jacksonville listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Jaguars.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Jaguars fall from -3 to -2.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Jacksonville to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the Raiders plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
At DraftKings, Las Vegas is taking in 24% of spread bets and 42% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Raiders are receiving 40% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Las Vegas.
Las Vegas has ultimate buy-low value as a dog off a blowout loss of 20-points or more. These teams have gone 7-6 ATS (54%) this season and 128-101 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2018.
In his regular season career, Pete Carroll is 53-38 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI as a dog, second best among active NFL coaches behind only Mike Tomlin.
Those looking to follow the sharp move would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings is still offering Raiders +3 (-120) while the rest of the market is down to +2.5.
Bettors could also consider Las Vegas in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Raiders up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy data-driven bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 52.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs (5-3) just dominated the Commanders 28-7, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (5-2) just crushed the Panthers 40-9, easily covering as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1-point road favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched heavyweights and doesn’t know which way to go.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Chiefs creep up from -1 to -2, with some shops even touching -2.5.
Normally, if the tickets are split down the middle you wouldn’t expect the line to move either way, as the oddsmakers theoretically have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing Kansas City.
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are receiving 49% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of pro action backing the road favorite Chiefs.
Kansas City has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (52.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the small number.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by targeting Kansas City on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are taking in 45% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, a sharp split in favor of a straight up Chiefs win.
Favorites are 84-37 (69%) straight up with a 2% ROI this season.
Patrick Mahomes is 38-10 (79%) straight up with an 11% ROI as a road favorite in his regular season career.
