Today we have a loaded Sunday NFL Week 9 slate on tap with 13-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 42.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Chargers (4-3) have won two of their last three games and just dismissed the Saints 26-8, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (2-6) just snapped a five-game losing skid with a 29-24 win over the Ravens, winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward the Chargers with 55% of spread bets laying the points with Los Angeles. However, despite receiving a majority of spread bets we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -4.5 to -1.5 or even -1 at some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Cleveland, as the line has moved in their favor consistently all week despite being the unpopular side. We also haven’t noticed any discernible buyback on the Chargers. Conference home dogs getting 4-points or less are 141-119 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. For those concerned about a tight game that may not cover the spread, Cleveland is also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. In terms of the total, is opened at 39.5 and got bet up to 42.5. However, we are now seeing some under 42.5 inflated line buyback. The under is receiving 50% of bets but 68% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% to the under, historically. The Chargers are 6-1 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL. Those looking for a second leg of the Wong Teaser could entertain taking the total up from 42.5 to 48.5 and going under for extra security.

4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48) at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams (3-4) have won two straight games and just took down the Vikings 30-20, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the Seahawks (4-4) have lost four of their last five games and just got crushed by the Bills 31-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. The early opener for this game was Seahawks -3 at home. However, after their poor performance against Buffalo and the Rams’ big win over the Vikings, we quickly saw this line flip to Los Angeles -1.5. Some shops even touched as high as Rams -2.5 throughout the week. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Los Angeles as a “dog to favorite” system match. The Rams are receiving 72% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support from sharps and the betting public alike. Road favorites are 26-16 ATS (62%) with a 17% ROI this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potential close win that may not cover the spread could elect to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -125. Road favorites are 32-12 (73%) with a 14% ROI straight up this season. The Rams enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Seahawks played on Sunday. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (48), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the read team, historically. The Seahawks are dealing with a rash of injuries and will be without starting WR DK Metcalf, T Abraham Lucas and TE Noah Fant.

8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 46.5)

The Colts (4-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Texans 23-20 but covering as 5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Vikings (5-2) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Rams 30-20, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for the Vikings and 70% of spread bets are laying the points with Minnesota at home. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve see the Vikings fall from -6.5 to -5.5. Some shops are even down to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, as they line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. This move also coincided with the news that the Colts will start Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson at quarterback, signaling that the market believes Flacco is an upgrade. Indianapolis has notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 30% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised Sunday Night Football showdown. Sweet spot road dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 21-13 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI this season. Primetime dogs are 129-108 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team, historically.

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