Today we have a loaded NFL Week 10 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns (-2, 37.5) at New York Jets
The Browns (2-6) just got rolled by the Patriots 32-13, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (1-7) just pulled off a 39-38 upset win over the Bengals, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New York listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Once the Jets traded away their top two defensive players (DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner), this line completely flipped in favor of Cleveland, moving the Browns from a 2-point road dog to a 2-point road favorite, with some shops now showing Browns -2.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the Browns are taking in 73% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is receiving 59% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss, like Cleveland here, are 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 26% ROI this season.
Favorites off a bye, also like the Browns here, are 3-2 ATS (60%) with a 12% ROI this season and 181-151 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2004. Road favorites off a bye are 73-47 ATS (61%) with a 18% ROI since 2004.
Cleveland has the edge defensively, allowing 23 PPG (17th in the NFL) compared to New York giving up 27.6 PPG (27th).
Pros have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting Cleveland on the moneyline at -130.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 38.5 to 37.5.
At Circa, the under is receiving 67% of bets but 93% of dollars, further evidence of pros out in Vegas backing a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 49) at Minnesota Vikings
The Ravens (3-5) just dominated the Dolphins 28-6, easily covering as 7.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Vikings (4-4) just upset the Lions 27-24, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and have steamed the Ravens up from -3.5 to -4.5.
At DraftKings, the Ravens are taking in 70% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating both public and wiseguy support.
Road favorites are 28-23 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-conference road favorites are 11-4 ATS (73%) with a 41% ROI this season.
Lamar Jackson is 22-16 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI as a road favorite in his regular season career.
Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the road team historically.
The Ravens enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as Baltimore played on Thursday while the Vikings just played a tough division game on Sunday against the Lions.
Those looking to follow the line move and back the Ravens would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings is offering Baltimore -3.5 (-118) while the rest of the market sits at -4.5.
Sharps are also expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been bet up from 46.5 to 49.
Overs are 72-63 (53%) with a 2% ROI this season. Non-division overs are 56-44 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Vikings are 7-1 (88%) to the over this season, the top over team in the NFL. The Ravens are 6-2 (75%), the 3rd best over team in the NFL.
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 44.5)
The Steelers (5-3) just held off the Colts 27-20, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (6-3) just edged the Titans 27-20 but failed to cover as 10-point road favorites.
This Sunday Night Football line opened with Los Angeles listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Pittsburgh plus the points, dropping the Steelers down from +4.5 to +2.5. This movement toward the Steelers has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Los Angeles.
At DraftKings, the Steelers are receiving 58% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money on the road dog.
Primetime dogs, like Pittsburgh here, are 17-12 ATS (59%) this season with a 12% ROI and 158-138 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020.
Dogs with a “severe” line move or 2-points or more in their favor, like the Steelers here, are 93-78 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018.
Mike Tomlin has excelled in this spot historically, going 2-1 ATS (67%) as a dog this season and 65-35 ATS (65%) with a 26% ROI as a dog in his regular season career.
Those looking to back Pittsburgh would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings and Fanatics are offering Steelers +3 (-115 or -120) while the rest of the market sits at +2.5. Bettors could also consider Pittsburgh in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Steelers up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy players can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving only 39% of bets but a whopping 85% of dollars, a massive sharp money bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 16-15 (52%) this season but 206-151 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019.
