Today we have a loaded NFL Week 6 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Cowboys (2-2-1) just brushed aside Jets 37-22, easily winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (2-3) just held off the Dolphins 27-24, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cowboys.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Dallas fall from -3.5 to -3. In addition, several shops are juicing up Panthers +3 (-115), signaling further liability on the home dog and a possible gameday move down to 2.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor of Carolina, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Carolina is receiving 21% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, Carolina is taking in 32% of spread buts a whopping 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home dog plus the points.
Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less are 177-151 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2018.
Bryce Young is 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI as a home dog in his career.
The Panthers are 2-0 at home this season compared to 0-3 on the road.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 44) at Miami Dolphins
The Chargers (3-2) just fell to the Commanders 27-10, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (1-4) just came up short against the Panthers 27-24, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public expects the Chargers (who have lost two straight) to get back on track and 67% of spread bets are laying the points with Los Angeles.
However, despite this heavy public support we’ve seen the Chargers fall from -5.5 to -4, with some shops even inching down to -3.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Los Angeles to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Miami plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
The movement toward Miami has been steady and consistent all week without any discernable buyback on the Chargers.
At DraftKings, the Dolphins are receiving 33% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami is taking in 31% of spread bets and 51% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Dolphins, especially out in Vegas.
Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less coming off a loss are 103-79 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2018.
Tua Tagovailoa is 7-3 ATS (70%) as a home dog in his career. He is also 7-1 ATS (88%) as a dog when getting 4.5-points or more. Overall, he is 26-9 straight up (74%) at home, including 6-4 (60%) straight up as a home dog.
The Chargers are also in a “fade” schedule spot as a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
8:20 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 52)
The Lions (4-1) just handled the Bengals 37-24, covering as 10-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Chiefs (2-3) just fell to the Jaguars 31-28, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 75% of spread bets are rushing to the window to back Detroit, who has a better record and has won four straight.
However, despite this massive public support in favor of Detroit we’ve seen the line move further toward Kansas City -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Chiefs, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public hammering the Lions.
The Chiefs have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 21% of spread bets in an extremely heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown.
Kansas City is in a buy-low situational spot as an unpopular favorite coming off a loss against a sell-high trendy dog on a win streak.
The Chiefs also have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (52.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could elect to play Kansas City on the moneyline at -135.
Non-conference favorites are 280-128 (69%) straight up since 2020, with the lack of familiarity typically benefiting the team who is expected to win. Patrick Mahomes is 43-10 (81%) straight up as a home favorite in his regular season career.
Sunday Night Football favorites are 42-17 (71%) with a 4% straight up since 2022.
