Today we have a loaded NFL Week 5 slate on tap with 12 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 44)
The Broncos (2-2) just took down the Bengals 28-3, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (4-0) just held off the Buccaneers 31-25, covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 60% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Eagles at home.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Eagles remain stagnant at -4.5. In fact, most shops are juicing up the Broncos +4.5 (-115) while several others have fallen down to +4. Some books even touched as low as Broncos +3.5 at times throughout the weekend.
Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has been on the Broncos plus the points.
At DraftKings, Denver is receiving 40% of spread bets and 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Denver is taking in 44% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +6 or less are 321-271 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Jalen Hurts is 17-21 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 3.5-points or more in his career.
Those looking to gain some added cushion with Denver could consider the Broncos in a Wong Teaser (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
1 p.m. ET: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 42)
The Giants (1-3) just upset the Chargers 21-18, winning outright as 6-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Saints (0-4) just fell to the Bills 31-19 but managed to cover as 14.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New York listed as a 2-point road favorite.
The public is all over the Giants and Jaxon Dart, who looked impressive in his debut.
However, despite 72% of spread bets at DraftKings backing New York we’ve seen this line completely flip to Saints -1.5 at home. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on New Orleans, as the line has moved significantly in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Saints are receiving only 28% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Those looking to follow the sharp Saints move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could consider New Orleans on the moneyline (-125).
At DraftKings, the Saints are receiving 24% of moneyline bets and 45% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New Orleans is taking in 22% of spread bets and 38% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a straight up victory for the home team.
Favorites are 45-19 (70%) straight up with a 5% ROI this season.
8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 48.5)
The Patriots (2-2) just crushed the Panthers 42-13, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (4-0) just took down the Saints 31-19 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Bills fall from -10.5 to -8.5, with some shops down to -8 or even -7.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are taking New England plus the points.
At DraftKings, the Patriots are receiving 50% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Patriots are taking in only 25% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road dog.
Big dogs +6.5 or more are 9-7 ATS (56%) this season and 142-114 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
This is also a Sunday Night Football showdown, which means the Patriots match as a primetime dog. Primetime dogs are 9-5 ATS (64%) this season and 150-131 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more they improve to 57-39 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2020.
Divisional dogs are 225-185 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2020.
Mike Vrabel is 30-23 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI as a dog in his career.
Josh Allen is just 14-16 ATS (47%) as a favorite of 7.5-points or more in his career.
