Today we have a loaded Week 5 NFL slate on tap with 12-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-1, 47.5)

The Bills (3-1) just got rolled by the Ravens 35-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Texans (3-1) just held off the Jaguars 24-20 but failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is all over the Bills laying a short spread in a “get right” spot. However, despite 67% of spread bets backing Buffalo we’ve seen this line flip to Texans -1. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Houston, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Texans have notable “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as they are only receiving 33% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet early games of the day. Houston has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (47.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Bills are suffering several key injuries and will be without WR Khalil Shakir, DT Ed Oliver, DT Austin Johnson and S Taylor Rapp. Buffalo will also be without pass rusher Von Miller, who is suspended. Pros seem to leaning on a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 46.5 to 47.5. The over is receiving roughly 80% of bets and dollars.

4:05 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 36)

The Raiders (2-2) just took down the Browns 20-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Broncos (2-2) just upset the Jets 10-9, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with Denver at Mile High, steaming the Broncos up from -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are even inching up to the key number of -3. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Denver with no buyback on Las Vegas. The Broncos are receiving 66% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars, indicating public support but also heavy wiseguy smart money in the form of a “Pro and Joe” bet split. The Broncos have a big edge on defense, allowing only 13.8 PPG while the Raiders are giving up 24.3 PPG. Las Vegas is also suffering some key injuries and will be without WR Davante Adams and RB Zamir White while DE Maxx Crosby and two offensive linemen (Thayer Munford and Dylan Parham) are questionable. Those looking to follow the sharp Broncos move but also protect themselves around a key number might be wise to consider Denver on the moneyline at -145. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 38 to 36. The under is only receiving 49% of bets but 61% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Outdoor divisional unders are 6-2 this season and 229-183 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. When the total is 39 or less (low total unders), the under is 5-2 this season and 37-27 (58%) with a 10% ROI over the past two seasons.

8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 44)

The Cowboys (2-2) just held off the Giants 20-15 but failed to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (3-1) just fell to the Colts 27-24, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is all over “America’s Team” at an attractive short chalk price and 60% of spread bets are backing the Cowboys. However, despite Dallas receiving nearly two-thirds of spread bets we’ve seen this line completely flip to Steelers -2.5. Several shops are now juicing up Steelers -2.5 (-115) or have officially moved up to -3. Essentially, all movement and liability is on Pittsburgh who is taking in sharp “dog to favorite” line movement. The Steelers offer notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 40% of spread bets in a nationally televised primetime Sunday Night Football game. Mike Tomlin is 56-41 ATS (58%) with a 13% ROI off a loss as coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a big edge defensively, allowing only 13.3 PPG (2nd) while Dallas has given up 26 PPG (27th). The Steelers also have value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Those looking to follow the sharp Steelers move but also protect themselves from a tight game around the key number of 3 could elect to play Pittsburgh on the moneyline at -145. The Cowboys are expected to be without two of their top defenders in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence due to injury. The total opened at 42.5 and rose to 44. We are now seeing some under 44 buyback, with some shops inching back down to 43.5. The under is only receiving 51% of bets but 70% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Primetime unders are 168-115 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 57% to the under historically.

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