Today we have a loaded NFL Week 2 slate on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trip of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 47.5) at New York Jets
The Bills (1-0) pulled off a miracle last-second 41-40 win over the Ravens in Week 1, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-1) fell to the Steelers 34-32 but covered the spread as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as high as an 8.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 72% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bills.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -8.5 to -6.5. Some shops are even inching down to Bills -6 over the past 24-hours.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Jets plus the points, as the line has moved in New York’s favor despite being the unpopular play. Essentially, we’ve seen one way movement toward the Jets without any obvious buyback in favor of Buffalo.
At DraftKings, the Jets are receiving 28% of spread bets but 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Jets are taking in 37% of spread bets and a whopping 89% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home dog.
Dogs with “severe” line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 87-65 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2018. Week 2 dogs coming off a loss, like the Jets here, are 101-75 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2005.
Divisional dogs are 261-220 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. Big dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 135-108 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI since 2022.
1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 49.5)
The Jaguars (1-0) just brushed aside the Panthers 26-10 in Week 1, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (1-0) eked by the Browns 17-16 but failed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as high as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is laying the points with Cincinnati at home, as the Bengals are receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving lopsided support we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -5.5 to 3.5. In fact, most shops are juicing up Jaguars +3.5 (-115), signaling further Jacksonville liability and a possible game-day dip down to Jags +3.
Taking a step back, why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Cincinnati to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with the Jaguars plus the points, triggering wiseguy reverse line movement in Jacksonville’s favor.
At DraftKings, Jacksonville is taking in 32% of spread bets and 42% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Jags are receiving 50% of spread bets but a hefty 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Dogs with “severe” line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 87-65 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 312-260 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
4:25 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 47) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Eagles (1-0) just outlasted the Cowboys 24-20 in Week 1 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (0-1) just fell to the Chargers 27-21 in Brazil, losing outright as 3-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, flipping the Eagles from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. In others words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Philadelphia.
At Circa, the Eagles are receiving 77% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Philadelphia from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Jalen Hurts has performed well in this spot, going 9-3 ATS (75%) in his career as a short favorite of 3-points or less.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by targeting the Eagles to win outright on the moneyline (-120), as Philadelphia is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
Philadelphia has betting system value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting “better” team who is expected to win. Non-conference favorites are 113-69 (70%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2023.
The Eagles have additional correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (47), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
The Eagles enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having played last Thursday while the Chiefs played on Friday and then had to travel back from Brazil to Kansas City.
The Eagles dominated the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, winning 40-22 as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
