Today we have a loaded NFL Week 3 Sunday slate on tap with 14 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 45.5)
The Rams (2-0) just took down the Titans 33-19 in Week 2, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (2-0) just edged the Chiefs 20-17, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two good teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -4.5 to -3.5. In addition, several shops are juicing up the Rams +3.5 (-115), signaling further liability on the road dog.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Rams plus the points.
At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 50% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of heavy wiseguy action in favor of the road dog.
When both teams are 2-0, the dog has gone 14-10 ATS (58%) with a 14% ROI since 2006. Short road dogs +6 or less are 7-6 ATS (54%) this season and 317-262 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2019.
Sean McVay is 14-9 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI as a dog getting 3.5-points or more in his regular season career. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is 15-21 ATS (42%) as a favorite of 3.5-points or more in his regular season career.
4:05 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 45.5)
The Broncos (1-1) just fell to the Colts 29-28 on on a last-second field goal, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Chargers (2-0) just brushed aside the Raiders 20-9, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Chargers at home.
The lopsided support pushed Los Angeles slightly up from -2.5 to -3. However, we are seeing wiseguy resistance on the Broncos as Denver is being juiced up +3 (-115 or -120), while several shops have fallen back down to Chargers -2.5.
The fact this line has barely budged and shows some buyback liability on the Broncos indicates a sharp contrarian line freeze on Denver plus the points, with books reluctant to raise the spread up to -3.5 for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Broncos backers.
The Broncos are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 3 as they are only receiving 21% of spread bets at DraftKings. However, at Circa the Broncos are taking in 29% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of desert sharps backing the road dog.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the unpopular dog Broncos would be wise to shop around and make sure they grab the +3. For those who only have access to a +2.5, Denver is also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot. By taking the Broncos up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-minded sharps can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Divisional dogs are 263-224 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
The Broncos have buy-low value as a dog off a loss who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite off a win and cover.
Denver also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, as the Broncos played on Sunday afternoon while the Chargers played Monday night and are now on a short week.
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 44.5) at New York Giants
The Chiefs (0-2) just came up short against the Eagles 20-17, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (0-2) just lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys 40-37 in overtime but managed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public sees a “get right” spot for the Chiefs and 67% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Kansas City.
However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas City remain frozen at -6, with a few shops even dipping down to -5.5. This signals wiseguy liability on the Giants plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in favor of New York despite being the hugely unpopular play.
The Giants have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 33% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime Sunday Night Football game.
Primetime dogs are 6-2 ATS (75%) this season and 147-128 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.
In his regular season career, Russell Wilson is 45-28 ATS (62%) with a 20% ROI as a dog. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is 24-32 ATS (43%) as a favorite of 6-points or more.
Teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017.
Those looking to go contrarian and back New York in primetime would be wise to shop around, as a few outlier books are offering Giants +6.5 (-115) while much of the market sits at Giants +6.
