Today we have a loaded NFL Week 4 slate on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9:30 a.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 41) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This early morning matchup will be played overseas in Dublin, Ireland.
The Vikings (2-1) just crushed the Bengals 48-10, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (2-1) just outlasted the Patriots 21-14, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Vikings, flipping Minnesota from a 2.5-point neutral site dog to a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Vikings.
At Circa, the Vikings are taking in 68% of spread bets and a hefty 80% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split indicating both public and sharp support in Minnesota’s favor.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game that may not cover the number could also entertain Minnesota on the moneyline at -150. At Circa, the Vikings are taking in 40% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money out in Vegas banking on a straight up Vikings victory.
Favorites are 36-13 (73%) straight up with a 12% ROI this season. Non-conference favorites are 8-4 (67%) straight up this season and 119-53 (69%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2023.
We’ve also seen chalk perform well in International Series games. Since 2007, International series favorites are 33-10 (77%) straight up and 29-15 ATS (66%).
Mike Tomlin is 63-34 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. Those looking to back Pittsburgh would be wise to consider a Wong Teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10, 44.5)
The Browns (1-2) just shocked the Packers 13-10, winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Lions (2-1) just upset the Ravens 38-30, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Detroit listed as high as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Lions at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Detroit remain relatively stagnant at -10. In fact, some books fell to as low as Lions -8.5 at times throughout the week. The fact we haven’t seen the Lions rise up to -11 or higher signals a sharp line freeze on Cleveland plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or moved slightly in favor of the Browns despite being the unpopular play.
The Browns are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as Cleveland is only receiving 32% of spread bets at DraftKings.
At Circa, Cleveland is receiving only 29% of spread bets but a hefty 76% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Big dogs +6.5 or more are 6-4 ATS (60%) this season and 139-111 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.
Cleveland also enjoys a one-day rest advantage as the Browns played on Sunday while the Lions played Monday night and are now on a short week.
4:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 49.5)
The Colts (3-0) just brushed aside the Titans 41-20, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (2-1) just fell to the Eagles 33-26, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as high as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Rams fall from -5.5 to -3.5. In addition, several shops are juicing up Colts +3.5 (-115), signaling liability on the road dog plus the hook.
Normally, in a vacuum, if the tickets are split the oddsmakers shouldn’t have to adjust the price one way or another because the action is balanced. So, based on the line line move we can infer that sharp money is grabbing the Colts plus the points.
At DraftKings, the Colts are taking in 52% of spread bets but a lopsided 70% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Dogs with severe line moves of 2-points or more in their favor are 89-69 ATS (56%) with a 9% ROI since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 319-267 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
In his regular season career, Daniel Jones is 18-10 ATS (64%) with a 24% ROI as a road dog.
Indianapolis is also a “dog who can score” system match (averaging 34.3 PPG, tied for 2nd in the NFL). This increases the chances the Colts can keep pace or back door cover.
