The long wait is over and the first NFL Sunday of the season is here. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of Week 1 games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-3, 37.5)
The Steelers finished 10-7 last season, making the playoffs as a Wild Card team where they fell to the Ravens 28-14. Oddsmakers expect another winning season from Mike Tomlin, as Pittsburgh’s win total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced to -120 at BetMGM. Meanwhile, the Jets went 5-12 last year and missed the playoffs. New York’s win total for this season is 6.5 with the under juiced to -145.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Steelers.
This heavy public betting in favor of Pittsburgh pushed the Steelers up from -2.5 to -3. However, this line never reached -3.5 despite the lopsided Steelers support. In fact, we’ve seen sharp buyback on the Jets at the key number of +3 as New York is being juiced up +3 (-115). Several shops have even hung around Jets +2.5 much of the week. Reading in between the lines, we are seeing some wiseguy line freeze liability on New York +3.
The Jets are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week, as they are only receiving 30% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Week 1 dogs are 80-62 ATS (56%) with an 9% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Jets here, are 60-45 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2016.
New York has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (37.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Mike Tomlin has been fantastic as a dog (63-34 ATS, 65%) but is only 91-99 ATS (48%) as a favorite, including 25-35 ATS (42%) as a road favorite of 3-points or more.
Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game here, as the total has fallen from 39.5 to 37.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 49% of bets and 72% of dollars. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
1 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6, 45.5)
The Giants went a disappointing 3-14 last season but oddsmakers expect New York to be a bit better this year as their win total sits at 5.5 with the over juiced to -120. On the other hand, the Commanders are coming off an impressive 12-5 campaign in which Washington made the playoffs and reached the NFC title game, losing to the Eagles 55-23.
This line opened with Washington listed as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t worried about this big spread and 61% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Commanders.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Washington fall from -7.5 to -6. Some shops even fell down to -5.5 at times throughout the week. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New York, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 39% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog.
Week 1 road dogs are 53-36 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 33-16 ATS (67%) with a 29% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 60-45 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2016. Russell Wilson is 44-27 ATS (62%) with a 20% ROI as a dog in his career.
Those looking to go contrarian and back New York would be wise to shop around for a hook, as a few outlier books are offering Giants +6.5 (-120) across the market.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Bengals went 9-8 last season, narrowly missing the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. This year, Cincinnati’s win total sits at 9.5 with the over juiced slightly to -115. Meanwhile, the Browns finished 3-14 last year and their win total is set at 5.5 this season with the under juiced to -150.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public expects the Bengals to easily win by a touchdown or more and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Cincinnati.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -6 to -5.5, with some shops even down to -5. Why would the oddsmakers make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding the Bengals to begin with? Because respected smart money has taken the points with the Browns, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
The Browns are the top contrarian play of Week 1 as they are only receiving 25% of spread bets at DraftKings.
Week 1 divisional dogs are 33-16 ATS (67%) with a 29% ROI since 2016. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the Week 1 dog is 31-22 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2016.
Sharps are also expecting a higher scoring game, as they’ve hammered the over and raised the total up from 46 to 47.5. The Bengals went 11-6 (65%) to the over last season, the 4th best over team in the NFL.
