Happy Halloween! Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 9 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Houston Texans and New York Jets. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at New York Jets (-2, 42.5)

The Texans (6-2) have won four of their last five games and just held off the Colts 23-20 but failed to cover as 5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Jets (2-6) have lost five straight games and just fell to the Patriots 25-22, losing outright as 7-point road favorites.

This line opened with New York listed as a roughly 1-point home favorite. The public is shocked that the Jets are favored and they’re rushing to the window to back the Texans, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite 71% of spread bets taking Houston we’ve actually seen this line move further toward New York -1 to -2. Some shops are even inching up to Jets -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better number to the public when they’re already hammering the Texans to begin with? Because respected pro money is fading the trendy dog Texans and instead backing the Jets as a fishy home favorite, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. In other words, the books have taken a position on New York despite the public overwhelmingly backing the Texans. New York is only receiving 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game, offering notable “bet against the public” value. The Jets are also receiving 46% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wiseguy wagers siding with the contrarian home favorite.

Thursday Night Football home favorites are 3-1 ATS (75%) this season and 93-76 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2006. Those looking to follow the sharp Jets move but also mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to target New York on the moneyline at -125. Thursday Night Football favorites are 6-2 (75%) straight up this season and 194-76 (72%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2006. This is also a buy-low, sell-high play on the Jets as they have lost five straight while the Texans have won four of their last five games. New York has additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Texans will be without their top two wide receivers as both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs will miss the game with injuries.

In terms of the total, it hasn’t moved much off the opener of 42.5. This lack of movement is notable because 68% of bets are taking the over, yet it has largely remained stagnant. This is evidence of a sharp line freeze, as oddsmakers have been reluctant to move the number up despite heavy over betting. Primetime unders are 172-123 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 58% to the under, historically. The forecast calls for high 60s, low 70s with cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium. The Texans are 6-2 to the under this season, tied with the Giants for the second best under team in the NFL.

Player Prop to Consider

Garrett Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards (-110): Wilson has gone over this number in four straight games. He posted 5 catches for 113 receiving yards last week against the Patriots. Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets. If the Texans elect to put their top CB Derek Stingley Jr on WR Davante Adams, it could lead to favorable matchups for Wilson against lesser defenders. Wilson caught 9 passes for 108 yards in his lone matchup last year against the Texans. The Jets won the game at home 30-6.

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