Merry Christmas! Today we have a tripleheader of NFL Week 17 holiday action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, 50.5) at Washington Commanders
The Cowboys (6-8-1) have dropped three in a row and just lost to the Chargers 34-17, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Commanders (4-11) have lost nine of their last ten games and just fell to the Eagles 29-18, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite.
Once it was announced that Josh Johnson would start at quarterback for the Commanders in place of the injured Marcus Mariota, we saw a massive line move in favor of the Cowboys, as Dallas shot up from a 3-point road favorite to an 8.5-point road favorite. Some shops are even inching up to -9 or -9.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the Cowboys are taking in 69% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. However, Circa is showing 37% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars on the Commanders.
Washington is offering betting system value as an inflated contrarian divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 51.5 to 50.5 despite the public playing the over (56% of bets at DraftKings). This signals some respected sharp action in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 50s with cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds, making this a slight “windy under” system match as well as an outdoor divisional under system match.
4:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-7.5, 43.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions (8-7) have dropped three of their last four games and just came up short against the Steelers 29-24, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Vikings (7-8) have won three straight and just held off the Jets 16-13, covering as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Detroit listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Once again, a change at quarterback has caused a huge line move. With Max Brosmer starting for the Vikings in place of the injured J.J. McCarthy, we’ve seen the Lions jump up from -3.5 to -7.5.
At DraftKings, the Lions are receiving 74% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Lions are taking in 60% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Those looking to fade the rookie quarterback and back the Lions but also gain some added protection could target Detroit in a teaser. By taking the Lions down from -7.5 to -1.5, value-driven bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
We’ve also seen the total plummet from 48.5 to 43.5, with the under 43.5 being juiced up to -115 and some shops even falling to 43 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 83% of bets and 85% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 78% of bets and 81% of dollars. This lopsided betting has created the top contrarian under opportunity of the day.
8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos (-13.5, 36.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos (12-3) just saw their 11-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Jaguars 34-20 and losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Chiefs (6-9) have lost four straight and just fell to the Titans 26-9, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Denver listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
Yet again, we’ve seen a massive line move due to a quarterback change. With Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both out with injuries, second year signal called Chris Oladokun will get the start for the Chiefs. Following this news, the Broncos got steamed up from -5.5 to -13.5.
At DraftKings, the Broncos are taking in 71% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars. However, Circa is showing 56% of spread bets and a whopping 98% of spread dollars on the Chiefs.
Those looking to go contrarian and buy-low on Kansas City would be wise to shop around for a key number of +14 between now and kickoff.
The Chiefs are also offering betting system value as an unpopular primetime dog, a divisional dog and a correlative betting big dog with a super low total, with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover.
We’ve also seen the total fall from 39.5 to 36.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 25% of bets and 38% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 32% of bets and a whopping 77% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 60s with partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds, making this a slight “windy under” system match along with a primetime under and outdoor divisional under system match.
