Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 7 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
8:15 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 44.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers (4-1) have won three straight and just brushed aside the Browns 23-9, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (2-4) have dropped four straight and just fell to the Packers 27-18 but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 4-point road favorite.
Early money laid the chalk with the Steelers, steaming Pittsburgh up from -4 to -5.5.
However, over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen some sneaky sharp buyback on the Bengals +5.5, as a few shops across the market are juicing up Cincinnati +5.5 (-115), signaling a possible dip down to +5 on gameday. In other words, late money seems to be quietly breaking back toward the Bengals plus the points.
A spread of 5.5 is typically referred to as “no man’s land.” As a result, bettors would be wise to track the next move between now and kickoff. If we see the market fall from 5.5 to 5 that will indicate further game day action in favor of the Bengals.
At DraftKings, the Bengals are receiving 48% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars, an ever-so-slight “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in Cincinnati’s favor. Meanwhile, at Circa the Bengals are taking in 49% of spread bets but a hefty 70% of spread dollars, an even sharper split and further evidence that the wiseway wagers in Vegas are backing the home dog.
Cincinnati has value as an inflated primetime dog in a heavily bet divisional matchup.
Primetime dogs are 13-6 ATS (68%) this season and 154-132 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 5-points or more, they improve to 73-52 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2020.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 15-11 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Cincinnati has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Thursday Night Football divisional dogs are 29-23 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2019.
Mike Tomlin has been one of the best coaches in the NFL as a dog (64-34 ATS, 65% with a 27% ROI). However, Tomlin is just 93-101 ATS (48%) as a favorite. He is only 44-52 ATS (46%) as a favorite laying 5-points or more.
Those looking to back the primetime dog but also add some extra cushion could entertain a Bengals teaser. By taking Cincinnati up from +5.5 to +11.5, savvy bettors can pass through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 42.5 to 44.5, with some shops even touching 45.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 57% of bets and 63% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 55% of bets and a whopping 86% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Weather shouldn’t play much of a factor tonight, as the forecast calls for mid 50s with clear skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds.
