Week 1 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears
The Vikings went 14-3 last season, making the postseason but falling to the Rams 27-9 in the Wild Card round. Minnesota’s win total for this year is 9.5 with the under juiced to -140 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Bears finished 5-12 and missed the playoffs last season. Chicago’s win total for this year is set at 8.5 with the under juiced to -145.
Back in the Spring when this line first opened the Bears were listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Since that time, we’ve seen the line flip in favor of the Vikings, moving Minnesota from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. The line reached as high as Vikings -2.5 before some wiseguy Bears buyback hit Chicago +2.5 and dropped the number back down to Vikings -1.5 where it stands on gameday. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward Chicago.
At DraftKings, the Bears are taking in 48% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 56% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sneaky “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog plus the points.
Week 1 divisional dogs are 34-20 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Bears here, are 64-51 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2016. Week 1 inflated dogs getting at least a full point off the opener at 39-25 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2016.
Primetime dogs are 3-0 ATS so far this season and 144-126 (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Alan Eck, the lead ref, is 55% ATS to the home team historically.
Those looking to back the system matches on Chicago but wary of a close game not covering the spread could instead entertain the Bears in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Bears up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy data-driven bettors are able to pass through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.
We’ve also seem some respected smart money back Chicago to win outright, as the Bears are taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings.
Sharps seem to be expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has fallen from 44.5 to 43.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 45% of bets but 47% of dollars.
Unders are off to a 12-3 (80%) start so far this season. Primetime unders are 191-138 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 304-253 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2017. Last season, the Bears and Vikings both went 10-7 to the under.
Weather shouldn’t play much of a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with clear skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds at Soldier Field.
