Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 8 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 44.5)
The Vikings (3-3) just came up short against the Eagles 28-22 last week, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-3) just got rolled by the Colts 38-24, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 59% of spread bets are laying the points with Los Angeles at home.
This lopsided support pushed the Chargers up from -3 to -3.5. However, once the hook became available we’ve seen some respected buyback on Vikings, as much of the market is now juicing up Vikings +3.5 (-115 or -120), with a few books trending back down to +3.
The Vikings are offering notable “bet against the public” value as Minnesota is only receiving 41% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game.
At Circa, Minnesota is receiving only 32% of spread bets but a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing the road dog plus the hook.
Primetime dogs, like the Vikings here, are 15-7 ATS (68%) this season and 156-133 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Justin Herbert is just 12-13 ATS (48%) as a home favorite of 3-points or more in his career, including 4-6 ATS (40%) as a home favorite of 3-points or more in non-conference matchups.
The Vikings have the edge offensively, averaging 24.2 points per game (15th) while the Chargers are averaging 21.6 PPG (20th). Minnesota also has the better scoring defense, allowing 20.8 PPG (10th) compared to Los Angeles giving up 23.3 PPG (18th). The Chargers have allowed 27 points or more in three straight games.
The Chargers are passing nearly 65% of the time this season, 3rd most in the NFL. The Vikings are allowing only 184 passing yards per game, 7th best in the NFL.
The Chargers have issues along the offensive line, as OT starters Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins are both questionable for tonight. Los Angeles is already without starting OT Rashawn Slater due to a season ending injury.
In terms of the total, we saw it open at 42.5 and reach as high as 45, at which point some sharp under buyback hit the high water mark and dropped the line back down to 44.5 where it stands now.
This sharp buyback is notable because the public is pounding the over at DraftKings (79% of bets), which creates a massive contrarian under opportunity.
At Circa, the under is taking in only 42% of bets but a hefty 77% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Primetime unders are 13-12 (52%) this season but 203-148 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019. Non-conference primetime unders have been even better, going 54-32 (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2019.
