Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 8 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48) at Los Angeles Rams

The Vikings (5-1) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Lions 31-29 and losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (2-4) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-15 win over the Raiders but failed to cover as 7-point home favorites.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Vikings. However, despite receiving a whopping 90% of spread bets, we’ve seen the Vikings remain stagnant at -3. In fact, some shops are even inching down to Vikings -2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and some notable reverse line movement on the Rams, as the line has either stayed the same or moved slightly in their favor despite being the highly unpopular side.

The Rams have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 10% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Conference home dogs getting 4-points or less are 140-118 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 128-106 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Sean McVay is 14-10 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI as a dog getting 3-points or more. McVay is 6-2 straight up on Thursday Night Football. The Rams also have buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (1-5) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (5-1).

Those looking to bet against the public and follow the sharp Rams action would be wise to shop for the key number of +3. If the Rams are +2.5, you could elect to play Los Angeles in a Wong Teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Los Angeles should enjoy an offensive boost as they welcome the return of WR Cooper Kupp and possibly WR Puka Nacua. Every team who has played the Lions this season has ended up losing the following game. This speaks to the physical toll that playing Detroit has caused their opponents.

In terms of the total, it opened at 46 and rose to as high as 49 earlier in the week. That’s when we saw some under buyback hit the market, dropping the total back down to 48. The over is receiving 64% of bets and 71% of dollars. Primetime unders are 12-13 (48%) this season but 172-120 (59%) since 2019. When the total is 47 or more in a primetime game, the under is 4-4 this season and 24-12 (67%) since 2022.

Player Prop to Consider

Jordan Addison over 42.5 receiving yards (-110): Addison caught three passes for 66 yards last week against Detroit. He has gone over this number in two of his last three games. He has also gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 road games dating back to last season. The Rams are allowing 211.8 passing yards per game, ranking 18th in the NFL. With the Rams focusing on limiting WR Justin Jefferson, this provides favorable matchups for Addison. This is also a high total game played indoors, which bodes well for offensive output.

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