The long two-week wait is over and Super Bowl Sunday is finally here. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Chiefs-Eagles using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 48.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs (17-2) are the AFC’s 1-seed and just held off the Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (17-3) are the NFC’s 2-seed and just crushed the Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, easily covering as 6-point home favorites.
This Super Bowl line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1-point or 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Early last week, we saw the Chiefs rise up to -2. But since that time, we’ve seen some respected buyback on the Eagles plus the points, dropping the line back down to Chiefs -1 entering gameday. Some books are still showing Chiefs -1.5. Two days ago, we saw Circa drop this game down a pick’em. However, it only lasted for a few hours before Chiefs buy-low steam showed up and raised it back up to Kansas City -1.
Gameday movement is always critical and worth monitoring, especially when it’s the biggest, most heavily bet sporting event of the year. Do we see this game tick down to a pick’em, which would indicate late Eagles action? Or rise back up toward Kansas City -1.5 painted across the board, which would signal late Chiefs respect?
In terms of the bet splits, the Eagles are taking in 48% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars at DraftKings. Philadelphia is also receiving 42% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars at Circa. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the Eagles. Those looking to play Philadelphia would we wise to consider a teaser play. By locating a book offering Eagles +1.5, savvy bettors could tease Philadelphia up from +1.5 to +7.5 and pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in a wiseguy Wong Teaser.
However, we’ve also noticed a strong edge toward the Kansas City moneyline (-115). At Circa, the Chiefs are receiving only 38% of moneyline bets but 62% of moneyline dollars, indicating a wiseguy contrarian discrepancy in favor of Kansas City winning straight up.
Patrick Mahomes is 16-0 straight up this season as a favorite. Mahomes is 95-82 (81%) straight up as a favorite in his career, including 13-3 straight up as a favorite in the postseason. Mahomes is 8-0 against teams in which Vic Fangio is the head coach or defensive coordinator. Andy Reid is 23-4 (85%) straight up off a bye in his career.
We’ve also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5. This movement is especially meaningful because the public is hammering the over (73% of bets at DraftKings and 77% of bets at Circa), yet the line fell. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. At Circa, the under is only taking in 23% of bets but 52% of dollars, a sharp split.
Player Props to Consider
JuJu Smith-Schuster over 16.5 receiving yards (-110): Smith-Schuster just caught two passes for 60 yards in the AFC Championship game. He was also on the field for 38 snaps, one of his highest snap counts since re-joining Kansas City. In the Super Bowl two years against the Eagles he caught 7 passes for 53 yards.
Isiah Pacheco over 21.5 rushing yards (-110): This is a buy-low play on Pacheco, who has gone under this number in three straight games. However, the bye week may be a big benefit to Pacheco who is still recovering from a knee injury suffered earlier this season. Pacheco finished with 15 carries for 76 yards in the Super Bowl two years ago against Philadelphia.
Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards (-105): Perine has gone over this number in 9 of his last ten games. He finished with 1 catch for 17 yards in the AFC Championship game. Perine is a trusted pass catching, third-down back. When Mahomes had to ice the game against the Bills, he went to Perine who came through in the clutch.
