Super Bowl Prop Bets:

The amount of betting options for the Super Bowl can be very overwhelming. There are so many different markets, players to analyze, and odds to compare at sportsbooks across the industry. It can be a lot, but finding bets with edges and getting the best of the price can really make all the time and effort worth it.

We’ve got a lot of prop bets and picks across the website and the network this week with a whole lot more to come. But, we’re trying to get everybody’s opinions on virtual paper, and that means getting a whole lot of different mindsets and mentalities on Chiefs vs. Eagles. With that in mind, here are my five favorite Super Bowl prop bets.

 

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Bookmark our Super Bowl LIX Hub to get all of our written content on this week’s action.

Super Bowl LIX Prop Bets:

Note: I’m using DraftKings lines as of Monday, February 3 at 12:30 p.m. ET

Chamarri Conner Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-120)

I love to look at defensive props in the Super Bowl because I think this is an under-scrutinized market and you can find some mispricings. Conner was banged up late in the season, missing the Week 16 and Week 17 games before playing just 19 snaps in the finale to get back on track. In the two playoff games, he’s played 74% and 77% of the snaps with five and nine combined tackles.

Conner has also played 27 special teams snaps in the playoffs and had at least 10 in every game until Week 15, so that might be another opportunity to snag a cheap tackle. With how much the Eagles are likely to run the ball, Conner’s ability to step up in run support intrigues me a lot here. Also, I’m seeing a lot of talk about Dallas Goedert against the Chiefs defense, along with some stats on how DeVonta Smith has done well against Steve Spagnuolo defenses.

I think Conner will have plenty of opportunities in the middle of the field to make stops and it’s clear that Spags trusts the rookie given his high snap share this season.

Marquise Brown Under 3.5 Receptions (+106)

Hollywood has three catches on seven targets through two postseason games. Maybe there’s a path for him to be used more in the Super Bowl, but I don’t see it. The Chiefs were not a home run-hitting team during the regular season, averaging just 5.1 yards per play. They had 5.8 YPP against the Bills, but just 4.2 YPP against the Texans.

Perhaps the plan from Matt Nagy and Andy Reid will be to try and soften up the Eagles defense by taking some shots to Brown, but I see a much more controlled offensive gameplan with throws to Travis Kelce in the middle, quick throws to Xavier Worthy on the outside, and probably more Isiah Pacheco as a receiver. Brown only played four games with Mahomes and this isn’t the kind of game where you try to develop chemistry. They tried that with nine catches on 15 targets in two regular season games, but he hasn’t been much of a playoff factor, so I don’t think that comfort level is there.

DeVonta Smith Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-110)

Smith was a huge factor in the 38-35 game that the Eagles lost in Super Bowl LVII when Spagnuolo was the Chiefs DC in the first SB meeting between the two teams. Smith hasn’t been a huge factor for a while and really not throughout most of the season, as he only had two 100-yard games and only has 12 catches here in the playoffs.

However, Smith in the slot could be an issue for the Chiefs. They’ve already had problems covering tight ends, as has been talked about at length by pundits and prognosticators. I don’t think we will see A.J. Brown moved around formations a lot by Kellen Moore, but I think Smith, his speed, and the “gadget play” ability could be something that we absolutely see the OC attempt to leverage in his favor.

In the playoffs, Smith has one catch of 28 and one catch of 20, so he’s only gone over once in three games, but went over this in 10 of 13 regular season games.

Over 10.5 Third Down Conversions (-140)

A little chalky here, but these two teams were third (Eagles) and seventh (Chiefs) in offensive plays run during the regular season. They were second (Eagles) and fourth (Chiefs) in third down plays. The Chiefs actually converted 7.4% third downs over expected per RBSDM, while the Eagles converted 2.5% over expected.

Philly was very stingy on third down at 35.5%, while KC was a less less stingy at 43.3%. But, the Chiefs converted 48.5% of their third down attempts. Philly was also a top-10 unit in that department. I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of explosives in this game, but these are two offenses plenty capable of staying on time with down and distance.

KC is 9-for-20 in the playoffs and the Eagles are 13-for-36, so they’ve struggled a bit, but a 2-for-11 performance against a Packers team that was second in third down EPA/play has skewed those numbers a bit. The Chiefs defense is far less successful on third down.

Will Both Teams Make a 33-Yard or Longer Field Goal? Yes (+115)

This is one of my favorite prop bets to look at every season. Usually teams make it to the Super Bowl because they are good on offense and are capable of getting into high-percentage scoring areas. Kansas City had 30 red-zone trips without scoring a touchdown and the Eagles had 27. Neither team is overly aggressive on fourth down, as the Chiefs had 17 attempts in 17 regular season games and the Eagles had 27.

Jake Elliott is just 1-of-8 from 50+ this season, but he’s been excellent from 30-49, going 18-of-20 in the regular season and 5-for-5 in the postseason. Harrison Butker is just 2-of-5 from 50+, but 14-of-14 from 30-49.

I don’t think this becomes the type of game where the coaches feel like kicking a 3-pointer isn’t enough, like it’s some sort of track meet where it’s TD or bust. I think we see both offenses position themselves to score and that means some kicks are involved.

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