Summer is considered the sports bettor’s vacation. With only MLB and WNBA in action, many bettors take a midsummer break to recharge their batteries, assess their bankrolls and prepare for the upcoming NFL season. While the preseason is still weeks away, bettors can take advantage of some downtime and get a leg up on their NFL handicapping by searching for win totals offering value.
Win totals are often viewed as a bankroll builder, but they also require liquidity in terms of funds as well as patience. After all, bets made now and prior to Week 1 will take 6+ months to cash. However, win totals give bettors a rooting interest throughout the year and can also provide in-season adjusted win total hedging opportunities.
***Top NFL Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
In addition, the process of researching teams and looking for win total bets can help bettors learn about each team, their offseason changes and updated depth charts, providing useful information that could help them cash a bet down the road. For example, maybe you research 15 teams and decide to bet only 3 or 4 win totals. But in the process you’ve gained institutional knowledge on a dozen teams or more that can be used at a later date.
With this in mind, let’s examine a trio of NFL win totals receiving sharp action across the market using the bet splits provided by BetMGM.
New England Patriots Over 7.5 wins
The Patriots went 4-13 for the second consecutive season last year. This offseason, New England has undergone a notable coaching and roster overhaul, with Mike Vrabel replacing Jerod Mayo as head coach and Josh McDaniels taking over for Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator. The Patriots also spent big money in free agency, adding WR Stefon Diggs, DL Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis and LB Harold Landry, while also drafting OL Will Campbell and RB Treveyon Henderson in the first two rounds.
The Patriots entered the offseason with a win total of 7.5. At BetMGM, 79% of bets and 90% of dollars have come in on the over, raising the total from 7.5 to 8.5. However, while much of the market sits at 8.5, savvy bettors who are willing to pay some juice can still find over 7.5 at FanDuel at -165. The Patriots also enjoy one of the easiest schedules and least amount of travel in the NFL. Patriots over win total bettors will also be hoping for a Year 2 bump for second year QB Drake Maye.
New Orleans Saints Under 5.5 wins
The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen after a 2-7 start last season. New Orleans then went 3-5 the rest of the way under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, finishing the year 5-12. In the offseason, the Saints hired Eagles OC Kellen Moore to take over as head coach. New Orleans also saw starting QB Derek Carr retire. Rookie second round pick Tyler Shough is expected to battle second year player Spencer Rattler for the starting quarterback job.
The Saints entered the offseason with a win total of 6.5. Sharps expect New Orleans to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, flooding the market with “under” money and dropping the Saints win total down from 6.5 to 5.5. Many books are even juicing up the under 5.5 to -120 (DraftKings) and -165 (FanDuel), signaling further under liability despite the win total dropping a full game off the opener. The under is receiving 82% of bets and 96% of dollars at BetMGM, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp under split. As a rule of thumb, wiseguys often look to fade rookie coaches, rookie quarterbacks and overall instability when it comes to betting NFL win totals.
Los Angeles Rams Over 9.5 wins
The Rams went 10-7 last season, winning the NFC West and beating the Vikings 27-9 in the Wild Card round before losing to the Eagles 28-22 in the Divisional round. Los Angeles can lean on their experience and stability entering this season, returning head coach Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford and a plethora of starters on both sides of the ball. The Rams also added WR Davante Adams in free agency to pair with WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams.
The Rams win total opened the offseason at 9.5 and remains at 9.5. However, a closer look at the juice shows movement and liability on the over, as the over 9.5 has increased from -140 to -150. Currently 85% of bets and a whopping 98% of dollars are on the over, further evidence of heavy Pro and Joe support in favor of the Rams winning 10 games or more this season. Los Angeles also enjoys a relatively easy schedule, as their opponents from last year posted a combined .491 win percentage, ranking 17th overall.
