Tuley: NFC, AFC Championship Games Best Bet; recap of Sunday’s betting action

50

NFL Best Bets, Sunday Recaps

We’ve had a lot of great days in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office this football season, but Sunday was one of my favorites with the NFL divisional playoffs until my regular weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” to recap the weekend and look ahead to the Championship Games next Sunday.
I won my Best Bet of the day on the Bengals (given out on last Sunday’s night show at +4.5 and then throughout the week at +5, +5.5 and +6 as the line was inexplicably bet higher and higher on the Bills) in their 27-10 upset in Buffalo. I tried to warn people that the Bengals’ offensive line injuries weren’t that big of a problem. As I wrote in the VSiN Best Bets article: “A lot of people are making a big deal about the Bengals’ injuries on the offensive line, but it’s not like they’re going to be playing with only two offensive linemen plus they’ve worked around this problem before. Besides, since Von Miller was lost for the season, the Bills’ pass rush has been lacking.”
However, all I heard all week was how this would cost the Bengals the game as the line kept rising to my delight. When I was looking live at the snow on the field at Orchard Park, I was even more confident that the Bills’ pass rush would be negligible and then the Bengals went out and dominated with their makeshift line with 412 total yards including 240 passing and 172 rushing and giving up just one sack for 2 yards.
That improved our record with our Sunday night advance picks on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version) to 35-21 (62.5%) during the football season and even better at 22-12 ATS (64.7%) since the start of November.
 

NFL Quick Links:
Super Bowl | Betting Splits | Odds | Picks | Matchups

 
 

 

I was also proud that I passed on the Cowboys as 4-point dogs in their 19-12 loss at the 49ers. It capped a great divisional playoffs weekend as I lost on the Giants +7.5 at the Eagles on Saturday, but was on the Chiefs -2.5/Eagles -1.5 teaser along with all the other sharps and squares while also using Jaguars-Chiefs Under 53 as my Best Bet that day.
The cherry on top of the Sunday sundae was my lone NBA play as the Suns +9.5 pulled a 112-110 outright upset of the Grizzlies in a game that I didn’t watch a single minute, but the money pays the same. That was an anti-swagger play against the Grizzlies who had their 11-game winning streak snapped in their prior game.
Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action and then look for Best Bets for Monday and well as our advance play for next Sunday’s NFL Championship Games. Unfortunately, we don’t have a clear-cut Best Bet for Monday as we don’t have an NHL 1P Over parlay and just two potential NBA anti-swagger plays but both are chalk on the overnight lines.

Sunday Recaps

NFL: Bengals dominated Bills 27-10 in the AFC divisional playoffs. The ViewFromVegas is they easily won after closing as 6-point road underdogs and +220 on the money line (stayed Under closing total of 48.5 points). The 49ers beat the Cowboys 19-12 in NFC divisional playoffs and also covered after closing as 3.5-point home favorites (game stayed well Under the closing total of 46.5 points). NFL faves/dogs (& home/road) split 1-1 SU and ATS on the day. Unders swept 2-0 again.

More NFL: Faves finished 3-1 SU in divisional playoffs, but split 2-2 ATS. Home teams also went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Unders swept 4-0. Faves are 7-3 SU overall in the playoffs, but dogs still lead 6-4 ATS. Home teams lead 7-3 SU, but road teams lead 6-4 ATS. Over/Unders are back to .500 at 5-5 after Overs went 5-1 on Super Wild Card Weekend.

CBB: Temple upset No. 1 Houston 56-55 as 19.5-point road underdog and +1300 on the money line. No. 3 Purdue beat Maryland 58-55, but didn’t cover as 8.5-point home favorite. No. 15 UConn routed Butler 86-56 and covered as 15.5-point home fave.

NBA: Underdogs went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with upsets by the Suns (+8.5 vs. Grizzlies…cha-ching as we were on the biggest winning dog of the day), Nets (+8 at Warriors), Lakers (+6 at Blazers), Thunder (+3 at Nuggets) and Clippers (+2 at Mavericks). The Pelicans (+7.5) covered in a 100-96 loss at the Heat. Road teams went 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. Unders led 5-1-1 with push in BKN-GSW (236).

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 445-250 SU with 10 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 353-323-19 ATS (52.2%). Home teams lead 422-283 SU and 363-325-18 ATS (52.8%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead 363-331-11 (52.3%).

NHL: Faves went 4-1 with the lone upset by the Coyotes (+185 in 4-1 win vs. Golden Knights). Home teams went 3-2. Unders led 4-1. On the season, faves lead 429-275 with 20 games closing pick-’em. Home teams lead 371-342 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs’ lead dipped to 344-343-30.

NFL Championship Games Best Bet

49ers +8.5 at Eagles/Bengals +7.5 at Chiefs (2-team, 6-point teaser): We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as the lines were bouncing around on Sunday night. Both conference championship games are great matchups and we see them both as one-score games. We missed the Bengals +3 -120 opener at the Westgate SuperBook as the line was bet down in early betting, but felt the time to bet this teaser was ASAP as some books had already been bet down to pick-’em. The Eagles’ line opened lower but was steadily bet up during the night with Circa up to -2.5 -115 and BetMGM up to -2.5 -120, so hopefully we can get 49ers +3 at some point this week.

NBA Monday Best Bets?

For those interested in more of our swagger/anti-swagger plays (especially those followers who were with us on the Suns against the Grizzlies on Sunday), the Kings would be an anti-swagger play on Monday as they had a 6-game winning streak snapped by the 76ers on Saturday while the Hawks are what we call a mini anti-swagger play as they had a 5-game winning streak snapped by the Hornets on Saturday. The only problem for yours truly is that both are underdogs on Monday as the Grizzlies are -1 at the Kings on Monday while the Bulls are -1 vs. the Hawks, but we just wanted to mention those for our readers (and in case they do get flipped to dogs during the day).