Tuley: Tuesday NHL Best Bet, plus change of fave in AFC Championship Game


Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps

Monday was mostly spent recovering from a very busy but profitable weekend.
We also watched as the line is the AFC Championship flipped from Chiefs -1 to Bengals -1.5. We’ll have more on that later, but suffice it to say it continues to pay off to pay attention to our advance NFL plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” – which have gone 22-12 ATS (64.7%) since the start of November – and in these daily columns as we hope our followers were able to lock in the 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5 teaser before the line move.

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We didn’t have an official Best Bet in Monday’s column as both of our NBA anti-swagger plays were favored, though I did go on Twitter (@ViewFromVegas) late Monday afternoon to say that the Grizzlies had moved to +2.5 and was my play of the day. I know Ja Morant was out, but the Grizzlies have won without Morant in the past and it was more of a play against the Kings, so I went with it. It didn’t work this time in the 133-100 loss, but longtime readers know that we’ve had a lot of success going against line moves (see the Bengals vs. the Bills on Sunday).
At least our other recommended play on the Bulls -1 vs. the Hawks in their 111-100 victory came through for those willing to bet short faves.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action and then look for Best Bets on Tuesday as we return to the ice.

Monday Recaps

CBB: No. 17 Baylor beat No. 9 Kansas 75-69, but it wasn’t an upset as Baylor closed (and covered) as 2-point home favorite. Nevada beat No. 25 New Mexico 97-94 in double OT, but it also wasn’t an upset as UNR closed (though did not cover) as 3.5-point home fave.

NBA: Faves went 5-2 SU and ATS with upsets by the Magic (+7.5 in 113-98 win vs. Celtics, which snapped their 9-game winning streak) and Rockets (+6 in 119-114 win vs. Timberwolves as they snapped a 13-game losing streak). Home teams went 6-1 SU and ATS. Unders led 4-2-1 with the push in MIN-HOU (233).

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 450-252 SU with 10 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 355-328-19 ATS (52%). Home teams lead 428-284 SU and 369-326-18 ATS (53.1%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead 365-335-12 (52.1%) .

NHL: Faves went 3-1 with the lone upset by the Sabres (+162 in 3-2 OT win at the Stars). Home teams went 3-1. Overs led 3-1. On the season, faves lead 432-276 with 20 games closing pick-’em. Home teams lead 374-343 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs’ slim lead improved to 347-344-30.

Tuesday NHL Best Bet

Ducks-Coyotes 1P Over 1.5 -155/Blackhawks-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -145 (parlay payoff of +178: The Ducks and Canucks are still tied for the top record with 1P Overs as both are 34-12 (73.9%). Both have been good to us lately, especially the Ducks, who are on a 15-4 run. All these NHL betting stats are from @PSUOtto on Twitter. The Coyotes and Blackhawks are right around 50/50, but we’re counting on the Ducks and Canucks to help them contribute to the Overs with their defense (or lack thereof).

Tuesday NBA Best Bets?

We’re in the same situation as Monday as these are two potential anti-swagger plays against the Nuggets and Celtics, who had their 9-game winning streaks snapped on Sunday and Monday, respectively. However, their opponents are both favored at DraftKings with the Pelicans -1 vs. the Nuggets and the Heat -1.5 vs. the Celtics. But I’m still sharing them here in case they flipped to underdogs or for those willing to lay short chalk.

NFL Championship Games Best Bet

49ers +8.5 at Eagles/Bengals +7.5 at Chiefs (2-team, 6-point teaser): We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as the lines were bouncing around on Sunday night. Both conference championship games are great matchups and we see them both as one-score games. We missed the Bengals +3 -120 opener at the Westgate SuperBook as the line was bet down in early betting, but felt the time to bet this teaser was ASAP as some books had already been bet down to pick-’em. The Eagles’ line opened lower but was steadily bet up during the night with Circa up to -2.5 -115 and  BetMGM up to -2.5 -120, so hopefully we can get 49ers +3 at some point this week.
Tuesday update: AFC line has flipped from Chiefs -1.5 to Bengals -1.5, so while we hope most followers grabbed our original play, I wouldn’t blame anyone for now replacing the Bengals with Chiefs +7.5 or looking for a middle.