Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets, Contest Corner, NFL Week 14 picks


Monday was a pretty diverse day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We had some technical difficulties in getting yesterday’s column posted and tended to some family matters, including taking my son to his weekly Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice.
And then the highlight of the day came with Monday Night Football as we won our Best Bet on the Saints +3.5 as the Buccaneers jumped out to a 3-0 lead but never led by more than the spread the whole game, even when they rallied to win 17-16. For more details, see my weekly “Monday Night Football recap” at VSiN.com.
The win improved our record to 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) with my daily top play here in these columns since Oct. 27. Regular readers will also know that I originally gave out this play at Saints +6 on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT on Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) a week ago Sunday, and my VSiN colleague Jason Latus has me at 27-12 ATS (69.2%) since the start of the football season with those plays that also appear in the daily VSiN email updates and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) since the start of November. Note: our early plays for NFL Week 14 from this past Sunday’s show are at the end of this column. 
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action, take a peek into Contest Corner with updated leaders in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, and then look for Best Bets on Tuesday as well as giving updates on those early NFL Week 14 plays.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Buccaneers rallied to beat Saints 17-16 on Tom Brady’s TD pass with :03 left (and the PAT), The Saints still covered as 3.5-point road underdogs (game stayed Under 41). Favorites went 13-1-1 SU (Commanders-Giants tied 20-20) and 10-5 ATS in Week 13. The only outright upset was by the Bengals (+2.5 in 27-24 win vs. Chiefs). Home teams went 8-6-1 SU and 8-7 ATS. Under led 8-7; primetime Unders 2-1 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.


Top NFL Resources:

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 122-67-2 SU with 4 pick-’ems, but dogs still lead 100-85-6 ATS (54.1%). Home teams lead 104-83-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 94-89-6 ATS (51.6%). Unders improved to 108-85-2 (56%) and primetime Unders improved to 21-18-1 (53.8%).

NBA: Underdogs went 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS on Monday with the upsets by the Pacers (+12 at Warriors), Rockets (+8 vs. 76ers), Thunder (+6 at Hawks), Grizzlies (+5 vs. Heat) and Bruins (+1.5 at Raptors). The Magic (+10.5 vs. Buck) and Hornets (+6 vs. Clippers) covered in SU losses. The Mavericks (-3 in 130-111 win vs. Suns) were the only fave to cover. Road teams went 5-3 SU, but home teams led 5-3 ATS. Unders 5-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves still lead 232-121 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs retook the lead at 172-168-13 ATS (50.6%). Home teams lead 219-140 SU and 184-162-13 ATS (53.2%). Overs’ slim lead in totals wagering dipped to 178-176-5 (50.3%).

CBB: No. 18 Gonzaga beat Kent State 73-66, but did NOT cover as 15.5-point home favorite (stayed Under betting total of 152.5 points). No. 22 San Diego State beat Troy 60-55, but also didn’t cover as 16.5-point home fave (stayed Under 137.5).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 with upsets by the Flyers (+170 vs. Avalanche), Golden Knights (+165 at Bruins) and Capitals (+135 at Oilers). Home teams went 4-2. Overs 4-2. On the season, faves lead 233-158 with 10 PKs. Home teams lead 206-191 with 4 neutral-site games. In totals wagering, Overs take 194-193-14 lead.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million leader TAIL PARTY-2 went 4-1 in NFL Week 13 to improve to 45-17-3 (72.6%) and open up 1.5-point lead (1 point per win; 0.5 per push) over the trio tied for 2nd place with 45 points: Enut34-1, Look Ma No Hands-1 and THE LAND-1. 

SuperContest new leader is former leader HEINEKEN 21, who went 4-1 in NFL Week 13 to regain the top spot at 45-18-2 (71.4%), half a point ahead of last week’s leader, JHAAS07, who went 3-2 to dip to 44-18-3 (71.0%).

ICYMI: Circa Survivor is down to 70 live entries after only 1 was eliminated Sunday on the Jaguars. The rest of the final 70 vying for the $6.133 million prize pool used the Browns (36), Seahawks (26), Cowboys (5), Ravens (2) and Vikings (1).

Tuesday Best Bets

Hurricanes -1.5 EVEN at Ducks: The Hurricanes have won four straight games, but this is just as much a play against the Ducks, who are on a six-game losing streak. We’re not willing to lay -260 to win straight-up, but we’ll turn this fave into a dog on the puck line of -1.5 at even money and trust the Canes to win by multiple goals.

Canadiens +180 at Kraken: This is actually an anti-swagger play against the Kraken, who had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 5-1 loss vs. the Panthers. If you’re not willing to risk needing the Habs to win outright, you could play them on puck line at +1.5 -130.

Early NFL Week 14 bets

Jets +10 at Bills (Circa): As we suspected when we gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in the Monday version of this column, this line didn’t last long. It’s mostly 9 now with some books still dealing +9.5.
Giants +7 vs. Eagles (Circa): This is still pretty much widely available.
Broncos +9 vs. Chiefs (widely available, +9.5 at DraftKings): This is also pretty much still the number in the marketplace.