Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 2:
Well, NFL Week 1 didn’t go as planned in the Tuley’s Takes home office. After waiting all spring and summer since May, when the pro football schedule was released, we went a disappointing 2-4 ATS on the opening weekend (after going 12-4 ATS in the preseason) and a mix of 1-4 and 2-3 in our “pick 5” NFL ATS contests. That was even worse than the overall market, as my ViewFromVegas Betting Recaps grade Week 1 as favorites going 12-4 straight-up and 9-6-1 against the spread (for the record, home teams went 10-5 SU and 7-7-1 with one neutral-site game while Overs also did well at 9-6.1). As a “dog or pass” (and usually “Under or pass,” too), that didn’t bode well. My only winner from my “too-early” picks back in May was the Cardinals +10.5 against the Chargers, but lost on the Browns +8, Buccaneers +3.5 and Dolphins +3.5 to go 1-3 ATS with those plays, and last week I added a winner on the Patriots +3.5 and a loser on Colts +3.5 to get to 2-4 ATS overall.
However, there are two silver linings I’m counting on. 1) I’ve always said that the favorites have to win some weeks to keep the public betting the chalk and driving up the lines to give us value; and 2) after going 0-4 ATS with our CFB Week 1 plays, I went 3-1 ATS last Saturday in Week 2, so I’m hoping we can do that in the pros.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also share my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for contests where you have to pick every game (or as another helpful handicapping point).
Without further ado, let’s go over the full NFL Week 1 schedule.
Detroit at Buffalo -4.5
We get a great Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 2, maybe even a potential Super Bowl preview. The Lions mostly controlled their season-opening win over the Saints and looked like they would cover the 7-point spread, but they squandered a three-touchdown lead in the third quarter and had to stop a 2-point conversion in OT to hold on for a 31-30, non-covering win. Still, it looks clear that they can match the Bills score for score; in fact, Buffalo did cover -1 in their 36-31 road win at Houston, but it was back-and-forth in typical Bills fashion of playing close games. I love the Lions here at anything more than a field goal and feel better about it as the line has been bet up from 3.5 to 4.5.
Best Bet: Lions +4.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Lions 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Green Bay -3.5 at New York Jets
The Jets dominated from start to finish in their 23-10 win over the Titans, while the Packers fell apart in their 39-22 loss at the Vikings after knocking out Kyler Murray and letting Carson Wentz score 29 unanswered points. My spirit leprechaun, Lou Holtz, once said: “You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they say when you lose.” That certainly applies in both cases here. The advance line last week on this game was Packers -5.5, and now it’s down 2 points to 3.5? I don’t trust the Jets enough to take the short number, as they’re looking like a public dog.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Minnesota at Chicago -5
Now here are two teams that both looked very good in their openers, or at least the offenses, as the Bears ran over the Panthers 59-37 (with not much defense played on either side) and the Vikings rallied behind Wentz as mentioned above. In the VSiN NFL Betting Guide, I recommended the Bears Over 9.5 wins (+115) and +325 to win the NFC North, so I was hoping they’d be even more improved for coach Ben Johnson this season (after needing Caleb Williams to rally so much last year). However, I can’t help but feel this line has been overinflated after being -3 on the advance line last week (as low as Bears -2.5 at Circa) and reopening at -5.5 on Sunday afternoon here in Vegas. The line has mostly settled at 5 as of Wednesday afternoon, and I feel the money is on the right side even though Murray is still in concussion protocol. I’d be fine with either him or Wentz again. I expect a back-and-forth shootout that comes down to a field goal either way.
Best Bet: Vikings +5 (Pool Play Percentages: Vikings 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bears still 67/33 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh at New England -5
The Patriots led their Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks 10-0 in the third quarter before falling 13-10, still covering the earlier 3.5-point spread and pushing on the closing line of 3. The Steelers gave up an early TD to fall behind 7-0 to the Falcons, but grabbed the lead before halftime and coasted to a 20-13 win thanks to T.J. Watt’s 35-yard INT return. The Pats obviously faced a tougher opponent, but I still thought the Steelers played better, and they should be right in this game. Five is a pretty dead number in gambling circles (the oddsmakers are basically saying the favorite should be more than a FG, but not enough to separate these teams and make it closer to a TD). I would make it 3.5 to 4, so Steelers +5 is a play.
Best Bet: Steelers +5 (Pool Play Percentages: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 67/33 in SU pools).
Carolina -2.5 at Atlanta
As stated above, the Panthers couldn’t keep up with the Bears in Week 1, and the Falcons grabbed an early lead but were then outplayed by the Steelers. I’m not interested in the Falcons getting less than a touchdown, but I would consider them in teasers. But as I wrote last week, I’m not playing as many 2-team, 6-point teasers as I used to, as books keep adding more juice (and I lost one of my outs this year that used to still offer -110). A reader asked on Twitter/X how much juice I would lay, and I guess I’d go as high as -125, but again, I’m going to be more selective. As always, not only shop around for the best lines when betting teasers but also the lower juice.
Best Bet: Falcons +8.5 in teasers, or Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Tampa Bay -8.5
Both teams let me down in Week 1. At least the Bucs showed some life in getting close in a 33-27 loss at the Bengals, but I couldn’t have been more wrong with my pick on the Browns, as they were never in their 34-10 loss at the Jaguars with just one garbage touchdown. Still, I’m sticking to my original handicap that Deshaun Watson still has something left (I know I’m in the minority), so I’ll back him again to get more than a TD against a Bucs team that tends to play close games, too. I know it’s a “plug-your-nose” type play, but I fully expect Watson to have more success against a middle-of-the-road Tampa Bay defense.
Best Bet: Browns +8.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 65/35 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 75/25 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Houston -2.5
Similar to the Carolina-Atlanta game, this matchup also fits the Tuley Teaser Portfolio as we can move the Bengals from +2.5 over a TD to +8.5. The Texans did go toe-to-toe with the Bills before losing 36-31, so I understand why they’re still favored here with their (usually) strong defense, but I certainly don’t expect them to win by margin against a Bengals team that can also put up points. In fact, I liked the Bengals ATS better when this line was at 3 (before getting bet down to the consensus line of 2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon), so don’t be surprised if I use them in the Vegas football contests if getting the full field goal again.
Best Bet: Bengals +8.5 in teasers, though also maybe Bengals +3 (Pool Play Percentages: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3, but Texans still 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Baltimore -8.5
I didn’t think the Ravens firing John Harbaugh was a good move, but Lamar Jackson made new coach Jesse Minter’s debut a winning one by throwing for 324 yards and one TD and running for 40 yards and another TD in a 41-23 rout of the Colts. I lost in fading them with the Colts +3.5, but longtime readers know it takes more than one losing bet to change my opinion. I still plan to fade the Ravens (whose defense has a tendency to let teams stick around) until they beat me into submission. And I think we have a really live dog here with the Saints getting more than a TD after they just rallied to cover +7 in a 31-30 OT loss at the Lions. Second-year QB Tyler Shough started slow but then led the comeback. A faster start would make me even more confident, but I’m OK with a back-door cover, too.
Best Bet: Saints +8.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Saints 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools).
Philadelphia -7 at Tennessee
The Eagles should have covered as 6-point favorites in their opener against the Commanders. Instead, Washington was able to score a late TD to get inside the number, and Philly had to stop a 2-point conversion to avoid OT. Meanwhile, the Titans looked awful throughout in their 23-10 home loss to the Jets. I’m always tempted by an NFL home dog getting a full TD, but I’ll pass here as I didn’t see anything to think the Titans can do the same things the Commanders did. If anything, I’d tease the Eagles if playing this game at all.
Best Bet: Eagles -1 possibly in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
The Raiders won comfortably 27-13 over the Dolphins in Kirk Cousins’ Vegas headliner debut, while the Chargers suffered the most shocking upset (especially for Survivor players) in their 26-14 loss vs. the Cardinals as 9.5-point home chalk. I wish I had grabbed the Raiders +9.5 on the advance line last week, but that’s long gone after those Week 1 results. It reopened Chargers -7, and early money has mostly moved it to a consensus 6.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. I still might play the Raiders in some contests if it gets back to 7 (which it was at Station Casinos in Vegas on Wednesday).
Best Bet: Pass, unless get Raiders +7 or higher (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +7, but Chargers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Jacksonville -2.5/-3 at Denver
For newbies, the -2.5/-3 in the header means those lines are both available in the market at different books (and usually with the side you want being juiced to -120). The Jaguars are trying to carry their momentum from a 34-10 blowout of the Browns, while the Broncos are trying to bounce back from a 31-10 Monday Night Football loss at the Chiefs. Both teams should be playoff contenders, and this should come down to a field goal, though I’m not confident enough to take the Jags +3 as I feel the line should be 3.5. Instead, I’ll toss Jaguars +8.5 in Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio if I play them.
Best Bet: Jaguars +8.5 or better in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests, but Broncos 65/35 in SU pools).
Washington at Dallas -4
Both teams lost their openers, but at least the Commanders made a game of their 24-22 loss at the Eagles, while the Cowboys were outplayed more by the Giants in their 28-20 loss on Sunday Night Football. It’s tempting to take the dog here, but I’m still more confident in the Cowboys bouncing back here. If the line was closer to 6, I might bite, but no chance of that.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 70/30 in SU pools).
Seattle -4 at Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks had to rally (behind Drew Locke after Sam Darnold’s glute injury) to win their NFL lid-lifter 13-10 over the Patriots while the Cardinals pulled the biggest upset of opening weekend. Darnold has already been declared out again for this game, which is kind of a shame for dog bettors as we’d be getting closer to a TD if he was back. Instead, this line is too short for me even with the divisional home dog. The Cardinals will have a much harder time sneaking up and surprising a divisional rival.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Miami at San Francisco -13.5
I knew I shoulda taken the 49ers as divisional dogs in their 27-7 rout of the Rams in Australia. I wasn’t convinced they arriving early (with the Rams arriving late to stay on Pacific Time) would make that much of a difference, but now we’ll see if the 49ers are able to get their body clocks back in sync. But that’s not the main reason I’m taking the Dolphins here. For one, I still love me some double-digit NFL underdogs. Secondly, even though I lost on the Fish at the Raiders, I saw enough from new Miami QB Malik Willis to give him another shot, plus WRs Caleb Dougas and Malik Washington stepped up to go with RB De’Von Achane to keep them within two TDs.
Best Bet: Dolphins +13.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 67/33 in ATS contests, but 49ers still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Kansas City -6.5
The Colts disappointed in their 41-23 home loss to the Ravens that was never in doubt, while the Chiefs looked like their championship window might not be closed after all with their resounding 31-10 rout of the Broncos on MNF. Longtime readers know I love to fade the Chiefs as they usually let teams stick around, but I can’t pull the trigger with this line under a full TD. I’m not confident enough with the Colts to match them score for score.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams -7
It makes sense with the Rams being preseason Super Bowl favorites that we get them in primetime again this week, but we also get the Giants on MNF after they were on SNF in Week 1. But maybe the schedule makers knew something, as the Giants beat the Cowboys 28-20 in their opener. The Rams will try to bounce back from their 27-7 blowout loss to the 49ers in Australia. The advance line for this game was Rams -8 and went as high as 9.5 before the Week 1 results. It’s been adjusted to 7, but I still find value on the underdog as the Giants’ offense looked sharp with the return of Cam Kattebo (81 rushing yards, one TD) and Jaxson Dart (23-for-29, 230 yards, 3 TDs) throwing to TE Isiah Likely (who followed Harbaugh from Baltimore) and WR Malik Nabers. The Rams should rebound, but I see the Giants keeping this as a one-score game.
Best Bet: Giants +7 (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but Rams still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more NFL Week 2 best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
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