Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 6:
After going 4-0-1 ATS in NFL Week 4 two weekends ago, Week 5 was a bit of a letdown in the Tuley’s Takes home office (though we did go 5-0 ATS in college football on Saturday, so we can’t complain too much). We ended up going 3-3-1 ATS on our best bets here in Week 5, though I have to admit we felt lucky it wasn’t worse, as it looked like we were going to go 0-4 ATS in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoffs but came out of that 1-2-1 ATS and back to .500 on the day after winning with Eagles +7.5 vs. the Jaguars in that crazy 19-17 loss in London.
Then, in that early Sunday window, the Dolphins +7 vs. the Bengals, Raiders +3.5 at Patriots, Giants +3.5 at Commanders and Titans +7.5 vs. the Texans all looked like losers, but while the Raiders and Titans both were blown out, the Dolphins +7 rallied to get a miracle push in their 31-24 home loss, and the Giants +3.5 rallied to force OT, and then we got the cover when the game ended in a 27-27 tie.
As for our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, it fared well even though we lost with the Cowboys -2 on Thursday Night Football, but won with the Browns +7.5 and Packers +8.5 on Sunday (bogged down by a loss on Colts +8.5) and then won with the Bills +9 on Monday Night Football as well as my recommended 2-teamer with Over 48.5. Because of this success, we’ll keep pointing out our teaser plays, though we always stress to not only shop around for the best line to tease (through the key numbers of 3 and 7) but also the lowest juice.
Favorites and underdogs split 7-7-1 overall in Week 5, so I guess it’s fitting we went 3-3-1 ATS. For those who follow my betting recaps at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X, I have dogs still leading 40-33-5 ATS (54.5%) on the season.
Enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes), let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 6 schedule, which has just 14 games this weekend, with the Vikings, Lions, Bengals and Dolphins having early bye weeks.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Seattle (-2.5) at Denver
The Thursday nighter gives us a pair of 3-2 teams, with the Seahawks now trailing the 5-0 49ers by two games after losing to them 32-29 this past Sunday, and the Broncos 1.5 games behind the 4-0 Chiefs. Obviously neither wants to fall to 3-3 in the divisional or Wild Card races, so we should have a playoff atmosphere in Denver for TNF.
Underdogs have pulled outright upsets the last three Thursdays: the Falcons ran over the Packers, the Browns beat the Steelers, and the Buccaneers knocked off the Cowboys. The advance line for this game was Seahawks -1.5 and has been slowly climbing to -2.5 -120 at most books as of Wednesday afternoon, so it would be tempting to take the Broncos if we can get +3. However, the stronger play looks like letting Broncos +8.5 kick off our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to some teams we’ll get to on Sunday.
Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Broncos 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Seahawks still 67/33 in SU pools).
Houston vs Jacksonville (-2.5)
The Jaguars pulled off a miracle 19-17 win in London over the Eagles this past Sunday (I had my Eagles +7.5 winner all the way, but certainly lucked out with my last Survivor entry on the Jags as Cam Little kicked a FG after the Eagles had taken the lead with :08 left on the clock). Jacksonville stays in its home-away-from-home to play a second straight game in London, this time against the Texans, who got their first week of the season over the lowly Titans. The line is too short for me to take the Texans, and I’m not as thrilled with this teaser as I am with the Broncos on TNF, though that’s the only way I’d play this.
Best Bet: Lean to Texans +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 65/35 in SU pools).
New York Jets at New England (-7)
The advance line for this game was Patriots -7, reopened on Sunday afternoon at -7.5 after the Patriots routed the Raiders 45-17 and the Jets squeaked by the Browns 17-12, but has dipped back to 7 early this week. Most books still have it at -7 -115 or -120, so hopefully the public will bet it back to 7.5. The Patriots, especially Drake Maye, got roasted after falling to 1-2 with a 35-6 blowout by the Jaguars, but they’re back on track after upsetting the previously undefeated Bills and routing the Raiders 45-17 this past Sunday. They’re also 4-1 ATS, so that’s another reason I hope this line gets bet higher, as the Jets have also been competitive. They’re 2-3 with only wins over the Titans in Week 1 and that win over the Browns Sunday, but they pushed in a 20-17 OT loss to the Packers in Week 2 (covering earlier lines of +3.5 and +4) and also pushed in a 31-24 loss at the Lions in Week 3. So, we definitely think they can stay within a TD here. Again, hoping for the hook but still plan to bet them and take them in contests at +7.
Best Bet: Jets +7 or better (Pool Play Percentages: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but New England still 70/30 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
These teams are tough to figure out with the Steelers at 3-2; they upset the Bengals in Week 3 but then lost to the Browns in Week 4. The Buccaneers started 0-4 but then upset the Cowboys (and a lot of Survivor players) last Thursday night with Jalon Daniels looking like an NFL quarterback in his second start after a rough debut. Again, the number is too short to bet the dog ATS, but with the Steelers’ inconsistencies, we can tease the Bucs up over a TD with confidence.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Steelers still 65/35 in SU pools).
Baltimore (-5) at Cleveland
The Ravens lead the AFC North at 4-1 with the other three teams (Steelers, Bengals and these Browns) tied at 3-2. The Browns have been good to me this season, including this past Sunday when I didn’t like them only getting +1.5 at the Jets but teased them up to +8.5 and hit that leg in their 17-12 loss. The advance line for this game was only Ravens -2.5 (as QB Lamar Jackson missed last week’s game with an ankle injury and it wasn’t known if he would miss multiple weeks), but has steadily climbed, which is usually a sign that the market believes Jackson will return. I’ll gladly take the bonus points, as the Ravens did just fine without Jackson in their 30-23 OT win at the Falcons on Sunday night. The Dawg Pound will be rockin’, and we expect this to come down to a field goal.
Best Bet: Browns +5 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools – we pointed this out last week that these dual 67/33 PPLs basically mean that if they played this game three times, I expect that the Browns would pull the outright upset in one of them, the Ravens would win the other two, but one wouldn’t cover the spread).
Chicago (pick ’em) at Atlanta
Both these teams have had roller-coaster rides so far this season. The Bears started off looking like they might fulfill Ben Johnson’s goal of leading the NFL in scoring but then got held to just 3 points by the Vikings in the rain and lost QB Caleb Williams, won the inspirational Case Keenum rout of the Eagles before losing two straight with Tyson Bagent (I still question that move, even more so now). The Falcons got back in the weak NFC South race with the return of Michael Penix Jr., but then lost Sunday night to the Ravens. Penix was hurt late, and it looked like this line might move to 3 with Williams expected to return, but Penix is expected to play Sunday. The line has dropped to a consensus pick ’em at most books as of Wednesday afternoon. Hard pass in a coin-flip.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bears 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7)
The Titans are 0-5 and neck-and-neck with the Dolphins and Chargers to get the No. 1 draft pick, but they are 2-3 ATS with covers against the Eagles in Week 2 and Ravens in Week 4. I’m not serious about this as I call this “voodoo handicapping,” but hopefully they can continue to be competitive in even-numbered weeks. Taking the Titans +7 here is more of a bet against the Colts, who are 2-3 and looking like a mediocre, middle-of-the-road team that shouldn’t be laying a full TD vs. anyone, even the dregs of the league. I know they have the excuse of not having a bye week after a London game, but they didn’t look good in their 34-22 loss at the Steelers on Sunday, and the Titans should be able to stay close like they did vs. the Eagles and Ravens (and the defense isn’t playing too bad).
Best Bet: Titans +7 (Pool Play Percentages: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but Colts still 75/25 in SU pools).
Carolina at Philadelphia (pick ’em)
This is an interesting handicap. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 2-2 while the Eagles are 2-3 and chasing the 3-1-1 Giants in the NFC East after their shocking 19-17 loss to the Jaguars in London and the Giants tying the Commanders 27-27. The advance line was Eagles -2.5 before those results and reopened -1.5 on Sunday afternoon, but is now to PK with the market supporting Carolina and fading Philly. Part of the reason is that the Panthers are coming off a bye while the Eagles don’t get an off week. The bye team is 4-0 SU in these spots, so I lean Panthers, but not enough to bet them.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Panthers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New Orleans (-1) at New York Giants
It is amazing that half of the games this week (seven of 14) are lined under a field goal. The advance line for this game was Saints -1.5 before they lost 23-13 to the Vikings and the Giants tied the Commanders. Circa Sports has held the line at 1.5, but the majority of Vegas books have dropped to 1, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go to pick ’em or even flip favoritism. Another coin-flip game and hard pass (as it isn’t even in the “teaser zone” at most books).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Moving to the Sunday afternoon slate out West, we get our only double-digit favorite of the week: the Rams hosting the Cardinals. I know the Rams were the preseason Super Bowl favorites, but they’re only 2-3 after losing two of their last three games to the Broncos and Bills. There’s no shame in that, but remember they needed a miracle comeback to beat the Eagles in Week 4, or they could be 1-4 like the Cardinals. Arizona hasn’t been able to keep up with the Giants and Lions in non-divisional games the last two weeks, but also don’t forget the last time they played a divisional rival was in Week 2 when they covered as 7.5-point road dogs in a 36-30 loss at San Francisco. If they can keep within one score of the undefeated 49ers on the road, they can do the same against a still-scuffling Rams team.
Best Bet: Cardinals +12.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 67/33 in ATS contests, but still Rams at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-4.5) at Las Vegas
The Raiders started a surprising 3-0 but have come back to Earth with back-to-back losses to the Chiefs (though they covered as similarly priced 5-point home dogs) and Patriots (blown out 45-17). Granted, the Patriots beat this Bills team two weeks ago, but this line is still too short for me to take the Raiders even as home dogs. Josh Allen has the Buffalo offense humming, and I don’t see the Raiders matching them score for score like they did with the Chiefs (who they always seem to play tough).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-8)
As stated above, the Chargers are 0-5, same as the Dolphins and Titans, who were expected to battle for the No. 1 draft pick. The rough schedule continues here as they have to visit Kansas City (and we all know how great coach Andy Reid is with two weeks to prepare). However, longtime readers of Tuley’s Takes know I’ve often written that the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around before pulling off late wins, but failing to cover what are usually inflated lines, as they’re such a popular team in recent years. Even though they’re winless, the Chargers have been competitive in most of their games, just coming up short and losing one-score games to the Jaguars, Bills (who they should beat SU), Seahawks and Broncos. They can do the same here.
Best Bet: Chargers +8 (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
Dallas at Green Bay (-1)
The advance line for this Sunday nighter was Cowboys -2.5, but after they were upset 24-16 by the Buccaneers last Thursday and the Packers routed the Bears 31-7 on Sunday, the line reopened pick ’em. The Packers have since been bet to favoritism, and that’s probably the right move. I can’t make a case for the Cowboys ATS, plus it’s not in the “teaser zone,” so we’ll pass on SNF.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Washington at San Francisco (-7.5)
Underdogs have been on a roll in prime time, so I’m already wondering if I’m missing opportunities by invoking “pass” from my “dog or pass” philosophy, with the Thursday and Sunday night games already in Week 6, at least as far as the point spread is concerned. Now, this game we’re getting more than a TD with the Commanders at the undefeated 49ers. Washington, of course, is coming off that embarrassing 27-27 tie against the Giants, where they let the clock run out before they could kick a potential game-winning FG. I would normally love backing a dog trying to redeem itself from a loss like that, but I can’t pull the trigger. The 49ers are obviously playing great, even against a tough schedule, and I still don’t know how the Commanders upset the Seahawks in Week 3. Instead, I’m going to anchor my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with the 49ers -1.5.
Best Bet: 49ers -1.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
For more NFL Week 6 best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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